基于小班尺度的北京市密云区森林火灾危险性评价  

Hazard assessment of forest fire in Miyun District of Beijing based on the subcompartment scale

作　　者：李维伟 杨雪清 张一鸣 冯昕 王博[1,2,6] 杜建华 陈锋 刘晓东[1,2] Li Weiwei;Yang Xueqing;Zhang Yiming;Feng Xin;Wang Bo;Du Jianhua;Chen Feng;Liu Xiaodong(Key Laboratory for Forest Resources Ecosystem Processes,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Forest and Grassland Fire Risk Prevention Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 100083,China;Academy of Forestry and Grassland Inventory and Planning,National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Beijing 100013,China;Beijing Municipal Forestry and Parks Planning and Resource Monitoring Center,Beijing Municipal Forestry Carbon Sinks and International Cooperation Affairs Center,Beijing 100029,China;Beijing Yongding River Leisure Forest Park Management Office,Beijing 100043,China;School of Emergency Technology and Management,North China Institute of Science and Technology,Langfang 065201,Hebei,China;Forest Fire Prevention Early Warning and Monitor Center of Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 100714,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学森林资源生态系统过程北京市重点实验室,北京100083 [2]森林草原火灾风险防控应急管理部重点实验室,北京100083 [3]国家林业和草原局林草调查规划院,北京100013 [4]北京市园林绿化规划和资源监测中心(北京市林业碳汇与国际合作事务中心),北京100029 [5]北京市永定河休闲森林公园管理处,北京100043 [6]华北科技学院应急技术与管理学院,河北廊坊065201 [7]应急管理部森林防火预警监测信息中心,北京100714

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2024年第2期75-86,共12页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2020YFC1511605)。

摘　　要：【目的】森林火灾危险性评价是实现科学林火管理工作的重要前提和基础,基于小班尺度开展森林火灾危险性评价及其空间特征分析,可为林火精细化管理提供依据。【方法】以密云区为研究对象,基于2019年森林资源二类调查小班数据、森林可燃物数据、气象数据、重要火源点等数据,构建密云区森林火灾危险性评价体系,应用层次分析法和熵权法相结合的主客观赋权法确定评价体系中各指标权重,根据评价体系中最终权重采用加权综合评价法计算各小班的危险性指数,依据自然断点分级法划分为高、中高、中低、低4个等级;采用全域和局域莫兰指数判断各小班之间的空间自相关性和聚集分布特征。【结果】(1)基于小班尺度综合4类因子构建体系,权重分布比例合理,可较好地开展火灾危险性评价;(2)研究区内高等级、中高等级、中低等级、低等级危险性的小班面积占比分别为12.75%,19.01%,41.70%,26.54%。其中,高等级危险性小班以灌木林、侧柏林、油松林为主,小班面积占比分别为38.40%、25.76%、24.13%;(3)高等级危险性小班分布在研究区范围的东部以及中南部区域,从乡镇尺度分析,呈片状分布于巨各庄镇、高岭镇和新城子镇;(4)小班危险性的全域莫兰指数为0.2413(大于0),说明密云区各小班存在一定的正相关性,即小班呈现出聚集分布的特征,采用局域莫兰指数分析发现火灾危险性等级为高-高聚集型小班的面积达34637.77 hm^(2),占密云区面积的15.56%。【结论】(1)构建的森林火灾危险性评价体系中,野外火源所占权重最大,是影响森林火灾危险性的主要因素;(2)高等级危险性小班区域灌木林占比较高,且聚集分布特征明显,根据权重结果,建议增强对野外火源和重点人群的监督和管理;另一方面,制定可燃物清理的标准和要求,定期在农林交错地区和火源点周围进行可燃物清理�[Objective]Forest fire hazard assessment is an important prerequisite and foundation for achieving scientific forest fire management.Conducting forest fire hazard assessment and spatial feature analysis on subcompartment scale can provide a basis for refined forest fire management.[Method]Taking the subcompartment of Miyun District as the research object,based on the data of forest resource secondary survey subcompartment,forest fuel data,meteorological data,important fire source points,etc.in 2019,a forest fire hazard assessment system was constructed.We used the subjective and objective weighting methods of combining analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method to determine the weights of various indicators in the evaluation system.Based on the natural breakpoint classification method,four levels were divided as high,medium-high,medium-low,and low.Global and local Moran indices were used to determine the spatial autocorrelation and clustering distribution characteristics between subcompartments.[Result](1)Research was based on the construction of a comprehensive system of 4 types of factors at the subcompartment,with reasonable weight distribution ratios,which can effectively carry out fire hazard assessment.(2)The proportions of hazard subcompartment areas with high level,medium-high level,medium-low level,and low level were 12.75%,19.01%,41.70%,and 26.54%,respectively.Among them,the high-level hazard subcompartment was mainly composed of shrubbery,Platycladus orientalis forest,and Pinus tabuliformis forest,with subcompartment areas accounting for 38.40%,25.76%,and 24.13%,respectively.(3)High level hazardous small classes were distributed in the eastern and central southern regions of the research area.From a township level analysis,they were distributed in a patchy pattern in Jugezhuang Town,Gaoling Town,and Xinchengzi Town.(4)The global Moran index of the hazard of subcompartments was 0.2413(>0),indicating that there was a certain positive correlation among the subcompartments in Miyun District and t

关 键 词：密云区 森林火灾 小班尺度 危险性评价 空间分布 自相关分析 

分 类 号：S762[农业科学—森林保护学]