禽类疫病对主产区鸡蛋产业链价格的结构性影响研究  

A study on the structural impact of poultry diseases on egg chain prices in the main production areas

作　　者：肖彬杉 张怡 XIAO Binshan;ZHANG Yi(College of Economics and Management(College of Cooperatives),Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学经济管理学院(合作社学院),山东青岛266109

出　　处：《黑龙江畜牧兽医》2024年第2期1-13,共13页Heilongjiang Animal Science And veterinary Medicine

基　　金：山东省家禽产业技术体系产业经济岗位项目(SDAIT-11-12)。

摘　　要：为了探究禽类疫病对鸡蛋产业链价格的结构性影响,研究基于2013年1月份—2020年12月份鸡蛋主产区12个省份的面板数据,选取蛋鸡配合饲料价格、商品代蛋雏鸡价格、淘汰鸡价格与鸡蛋价格代表鸡蛋产业链上下游要素价格,引入外生的禽类疫病代理变量,采用面板向量自回归(panel vector autoregression, PVAR)模型考察了禽类疫病对鸡蛋产业链各要素价格的直接影响特征与影响规律,进一步分析了鸡蛋产业链价格间的影响方向及影响强度。结果表明:禽类疫病在1~2个月内导致商品代蛋雏鸡价格、淘汰鸡价格与鸡蛋价格下跌,在2~4个月内导致此三者上涨;禽类疫病导致淘汰鸡价格与鸡蛋产业链上下游要素价格间的关联度下降;禽类疫病引起的鸡蛋价格波动沿产业链向上游传递明显,由此对蛋鸡配合饲料价格、商品代蛋雏鸡价格、淘汰鸡价格形成持续性影响,延缓了产业链上游要素价格的恢复时间;禽类疫病流行期间,商品代蛋雏鸡价格对整个鸡蛋产业链价格的影响突出。鉴于此,笔者建议应根据禽类疫病动向适时启动托市政策,加强对鸡蛋全产业链价格的监测预警,密切关注鸡蛋生产投入成本的价格走势,积极探索构建有益的风险补偿机制,合理调整产能、调整价格,避免蛋价持续性波动。In order to investigate the structural impact of poultry diseases on egg industry chain prices,based on the panel data of 12 provinces in the main egg producing areas from January 2013 to December 2020,the study selected laying hens complementary feed price,commercial laying hen chick price,culled hen price,and egg price to represent the upstream and downstream factor prices of the egg industry chain.By introducing exogenous agent variables of poultry disease,panel vector autoregression(PVAR)model was used to investigate the direct effects of poultry disease on the prices of various factors in the egg industry chain.The direction and intensity of the influence between the price of egg industry chain were further analyzed.The results showed that the poultry epidemic caused commercial laying hen chick price,culled hen price,and egg price to fall in 1-2 months,and the three prices to rise in 2-4 months.The fluctuation of egg price caused by poultry diseases was obviously transmitted upstream along the industrial chain,which had a continuous impact on laying hens complementary feed price,commercial laying hen chick price,and culled hen price,delaying the recovery time of the upstream factor prices of the industrial chain.During the epidemic period of poultry diseases,commercial laying hen chick price had a prominent impact on the price of the entire egg industry chain.In view of this,the author suggested that we should timely launch the market support policy according to the trend of poultry disease,strengthen the monitoring and early warning of the price of eggs in the whole industry chain,pay close attention to the price trend of egg production input costs,actively explore the construction of a beneficial risk compensation mechanism,reasonable adjustment of production capacity and price,and avoid sustained fluctuations in egg prices.

关 键 词：禽类疫病 主产区 鸡蛋产业链 价格 结构性影响 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济] S851.3[农业科学—预防兽医学]