基于AHP-熵权法的输变电工程低碳评价体系及方案优选  

Low-carbon Evaluation System and Solution Optimization of Transmission and Transformation Project Based on AHP-EWM

作　　者：赵淑媛 辛诚 陈衡 姜雪 于泽邦 王硕 张若辰 ZHAO Shuyuan;XIN Cheng;CHEN Heng;JIANG Xue;YU Zebang;WANG Shuo;ZHANG Ruochen(School of Energy,Power and Mechanical Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;State Grid Economic and Technical Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China;Economic and Technical Research Institute of State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Shenyang,Liaoning 110015,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院,北京102206 [2]国网经济技术研究院有限公司,北京102209 [3]国网辽宁省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,辽宁沈阳110015

出　　处：《广东电力》2024年第1期8-17,共10页Guangdong Electric Power

基　　金：国家电网有限公司科技项目(5200-202356133A-1-1-ZN)。

摘　　要：“双碳”目标要求下,输变电工程项目向节能减碳方向发展势在必行。为掌握输变电工程减碳与成本及效益之间的本征关系,建立输变电工程成本效益评价指标体系。运用层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)确定各项指标对成本及效益的影响权重,再采用熵权法对指标权重进行标准化及客观化修正,之后对每种技术方案选取1000个采样点进行敏感性分析,从而建立起较为完善的输变电工程综合评价体系。基于所建立的指标体系与数学模型对110 kV和220 kV案例进行分析,所得准则层与指标层误差均不足10%。随后提出8种备选减碳方案,逐一计算该8种方案全生命周期净现值与现金流,并对方案综合评分。最终得出结论:准则层中权重占比最高的为“新型变压器”技术,指标层中权重占比最高的为“变压器负载损耗”,且依据方案7改造有望以较低成本实现较高效益。Under the requirement of“double carbon”,it is imperative for transmission and substation projects developing in the direction of energy saving and carbon reduction.In order to grasp the intrinsic relationship between carbon reduction and cost and benefit of the power transmission and transformation projects,a cost-benefit evaluation index system for power transmission and transformation projects is established.The influence weight of each index on cost and benefit is determined by applying the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),then the entropy weight method(EWM)is used to standardize and correct the indexes.Afterwards,1000 sampling points are selected for sensitivity analysis for each technical solution,so as to establish a more complete power transmission and transformation project.Based on the established index system and mathematical model for 110 kV and 220 kV cases,the error of the criterion layer and index layer is less than 10%.Eight alternative carbon reduction options are proposed,and the net present values and cash flow of the eight options are calculated and scored.Finally,the conclusions are obtained as follows,the highest weighting in the first criterion tier is given to the technology of adopting new transformers,and in the second criterion layer,the highest weighting is given to transformer load loss.The transformation according to scheme 7 is expected to achieve higher benefit at lower cost.

关 键 词：输变电工程 减碳技术 层次分析法 熵权法 新型变压器 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]