基于海口EGS场地的微震分析及震级预测  

Microseismic analysis and magnitude prediction based on EGS site in Haikou, Hainan

作　　者：钱永胜 张延军[1] 孙少游 QIAN Yongsheng;ZHANG Yanjun;SUN Shaoyou(College of Construction Engineering,Jilin University,Changchun 130026,China;Beijing Municipal Engineering Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100082,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学建设工程学院,长春130026 [2]北京市市政工程设计研究总院有限公司,北京100082

出　　处：《世界地质》2024年第1期128-135,共8页World Geology

基　　金：中国国家重点研发计划(2019YFC0604905);中国博士后科学基金(2022M711291)。

摘　　要：近年随着地热能和增强型地热系统(EGS)的不断普及,越来越多的诱发微震事件也由此产生。为探讨地震活动的机制及查明实际工程中潜在的诱发微地震风险,笔者将位于海南省海口市的水力压裂场地作为研究区,通过收集相关地质和重磁勘探资料,建立二维地质模型,并模拟分析了断层面孔隙压力和孔隙弹性效应的时空演化过程,进行了诱发地震风险性评估和震级预测。结果表明:在研究区的流体注入会导致附近断层的应力发生改变,致使可能引起微小的断层活化现象,但由此产生的地震震级较小,工程风险较低。In recent years,with the continuous popularization of geothermal energy and enhanced geothermal systems(EGS),there has been an increase in the occurrence of induced microseismic events.To explore the mechanism of seismic activity and identify the potential risks of induced microseismicity in practical engineering,the authors took the hydraulic fracturing site in Haikou City,Hainan Province,as the study area.By collecting relevant geological and geophysical(gravity and magnetic)exploration data,a two-dimensional geological model was established,which was used to simulate and analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of the pore pressure and pore elasticity effects on the fault surface.Subsequently,an assessment of the risk of induced seismicity and a prediction of the magnitude of the seismicity were conducted.The results show that fluid injection in the study area will lead to changes in the stress on the nearby faults,which may cause minor fault activation phenomena,but the magnitude of the resulting earthquakes is low,resulting in a lower engineering risk.

关 键 词：增强型地热系统 地震活动率 震级预测 海口 

分 类 号：P314[天文地球—固体地球物理学] P631.4[天文地球—地球物理学]