模糊分割多目标风险框架下电网连锁故障运行风险评估  

Fuzzy Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Framework Based Operational Risk Assessment of Cascading Failure for Power Grid

作　　者：莫石 徐秋实 卢子敬 李子寿 赵红生 乔立 罗超 MO Shi;XU Qiushi;LU Zijing;LI Zishou;ZHAO Hongsheng;QIAO Li;LUO Chao(State Grid Hubei Electric Power Company Economic and Technical Research Institute,Wuhan 430200,China;State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430077,China;Central Southern China Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.of China Power Engineering Consulting Group,Wuhan 430071,China)

机构地区：[1]国网湖北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,湖北武汉430200 [2]国网湖北省电力有限公司,湖北武汉430077 [3]中国电力工程顾问集团中南电力设计院有限公司,湖北武汉430071

出　　处：《中国电力》2024年第2期41-48,共8页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52177077)。

摘　　要：在分析电网长期演化过程与短期演化过程区别的基础上,提出电网连锁故障运行风险概念,定量分析连锁故障长期风险与运行风险间的关系,建立电网连锁故障运行风险评估模型。利用蒙特卡洛法对给定初始运行方式的电网进行演化模拟,并引入模糊分割多目标风险框架建立评估指标体系。在IEEE 118节点系统中进行算例研究,分析了系统运行参数对给定运行方式下电网连锁故障运行风险的影响。On the basis of analyzing the difference between the long-term evolution process and the short-term evolution process of the power grid,the concept of power grid cascading failure operation risk is proposed,the relationship between the long-term risk of cascading failure and operation risk is quantitatively analyzed,and a power grid cascading failure operation risk assessment model is established.The Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the evolution of the power grid with a given initial operating mode,and a fuzzy segmentation multi-objective risk framework is introduced to establish an evaluation index system.An example study was conducted in the IEEE 118 node system to analyze the impact of system operating parameters on the risk of power grid cascading failure under a given operating mode.

关 键 词：连锁故障 运行风险 蒙特卡洛方法 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]