西北地区扶贫光伏整县开发决策演化博弈  

Evolutionary Game on Development Decision of Poverty Alleviation Photovoltaic in Northwest China

作　　者：刘宁 张驰 王栋 杨明杰 LIU Ning;ZHANG Chi;WANG Dong;YANG Mingjie(Information&Telecommunication Company of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]国网甘肃省电力公司信息通信公司,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《中国电力》2024年第2期149-160,共12页Electric Power

基　　金：国家电网有限公司科技项目(可调节负荷资源价值挖掘与商业模式设计关键技术研究,52272322002F)。

摘　　要：双碳目标背景下,西北地区分布式光伏整县开发新模式为解决该地区就地消纳难、弃光严重、光伏扶贫工作分散化等问题提供了新思路,然而光伏扶贫整县市场中各方利益主体的多主体决策问题成为当前扶贫电站市场运行的重中之重。以演化博弈论为基础,构建了包含用户、国有企业、光伏企业和政府在内的四方演化博弈模型,研究了以甘肃省、青海省、宁夏回族自治区为代表的西北地区光伏扶贫整县市场多主体决策演化及参数影响。结果表明,国企和光伏企业的均衡策略均为积极策略,而由于西北地区各地光照资源、电价、用电量等不同,用户和政府的均衡结果及时间也存在差异,光照资源丰富且政府补贴力度较大的地区光伏扶贫收益较为可观,用户投资热情高涨且实现均衡时间较短;成本节约和降低租金是改善西北地区均衡路径的有效措施。Despite the fact that the new model of distributed photovoltaic development in the whole county has offered a fresh approach to solving the problems such as difficult absorption,serious abandonment of photovoltaic power and decentralized poverty alleviation efforts amid the commitment to"carbon peak and carbon neutrality",the problem of multi-subject decision-making among all stakeholders in photovoltaic poverty alleviation in the whole county market has become the top priority of the current poverty alleviation power station market operation.Based on the evolutionary game theory,a four-party evolutionary game model involving users,state-owned enterprises(including the State Grid),photovoltaic enterprises and the government is constructed,with the multi-subject decision-making evolution and parameter influence of photovoltaic poverty alleviation market in Gansu Province,Qinghai Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region studied.The results show that the equilibrium strategies of state-owned enterprises and photovoltaic enterprises are all positive,but the equilibrium results and time between users and the government are also different due to the differences in light resources,electricity prices and electricity consumption in various areas.The photovoltaic market in Gansu Province is balanced in the strategy set built by users without government subsidies.Areas with more abundant sunshine and significant government subsidies report considerable income from photovoltaic poverty alleviation,which means stronger users interest in investment and shorter time to achieve equilibrium;cost saving and rent reduction are effective measures to improve the equilibrium path in Northwest China.

关 键 词：光伏扶贫 整县模式 协同机制 四维演化博弈 路径 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F323.8