碳市场与煤炭市场溢出效应机制的时变分析  

Temporal Variations of Carbon Market and Coal Market Spillover Mechanism

作　　者：张洪伟 田洪志[2,3] 杜佳玥 ZHANG Hongwei;TIAN Hongzhi;DU Jiayue(School of Marxism,Changchun Normal University,Changchun Jilin 130031;School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710127;Center for Studies of China Western Economic Development,Northwest University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710127)

机构地区：[1]长春师范大学马克思主义学院,吉林长春130031 [2]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127 [3]西北大学中国西部经济发展研究中心,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《经济纵横》2023年第12期113-123,共11页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金后期资助项目“能源革命与中国机遇问题研究”(编号:21FJLB011)的成果。

摘　　要：我国煤炭发电是碳排放的主要来源,因此研究煤炭市场与碳市场之间的关系尤为重要。利用TVP-VAR模型测算发现,在2021年7月16日全国碳市场启动后,国内五个碳试点市场受到煤炭市场正向冲击时,北京、广东与湖北等碳试点市场的碳价短期发生“U”型变化,上海碳价短期和广东碳价长期发生倒“U”型变化,深圳碳价短期和湖北碳价中期发生由负向正的变化。煤炭市场的短期冲击对北京、上海、深圳与湖北等碳试点市场至多4~6个交易日即完成了作用过程,说明上述试点市场在一定程度上与全国碳市场表现为替代关系,而广东碳试点市场与全国碳市场呈现出协调性和一致性。各碳试点市场对煤炭市场的影响方向也存在差异,二者之间无长期影响。在全国碳市场层面,短期内煤炭市场与全国碳市场存在双向负向溢出效应,且全国碳市场对煤炭市场的溢出效应显著强于反向效应,二者之间不存在中长期溢出效应。为了推动全国统一碳市场的建设,应将建立全国碳市场政策调控体系作为首要任务,将北京、上海、深圳和湖北试点市场转型为某一高耗能产业的专门市场,广东试点市场则可以建设成为大湾区碳市场;改革煤价形成机制,顺畅传导煤价碳价链条,使碳价更好地反映企业的排放成本;进一步完善碳市场顶层设计,尽快明确全国统一碳市场的监管规则、统计制度和披露要求等细则;逐步纳入钢铁、水泥等其他高排放行业全国碳市场。Since coal-fired power is the main source of carbon emissions in China,it is particularly important to study the relationship between the coal market and the carbon market.The estimation based on the TVP-VAR model showed that after the launch of China's national carbon market on July 16,2021,the five pilot carbon markets were exposed to the positive impact of the coal market.The short-term carbon prices of the pilot markets in Beijing,Guangdong,and Hubei presented a “U-shaped” change;the short-term carbon price in Shanghai and the long-term carbon price in Guangdong presented an inverted “U-shaped” change;the short-term carbon price in Shenzhen and the medium-term carbon price in Hubei changed from being negative to being positive.The short-term impact of the coal market on the pilot carbon markets in Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,and Hubei lasted for 4–6 trading days at most,which indicated that the above pilot markets and the national carbon market were in a substitutional relationship.The pilot carbon market in Guangdong showed coordination and consistency with the national carbon market.Each pilot carbon market exerted varied effects on the coal market,and there was no long-term impact between the two.Within a short term,there were bi-directional negative spillover effects between the coal market and the national carbon market,and the spillover effect of the national carbon market on the coal market was significantly stronger than the reverse effect.There was no medium-or long-term spillover effect between the two.To build a unified national carbon market,we should first establish a policy system for regulating the national carbon market.The pilot carbon markets in Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,and Hubei should be transformed into special markets for a certain energy-consuming industry,and the pilot market in Guangdong can be built into the carbon market for the Greater Bay Area.The coal pricing mechanism and the coal price and carbon price chains should be improved,so that carbon prices can reflect the emi

关 键 词：碳试点市场 全国碳市场 煤炭市场 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F420.21[经济管理—产业经济]