长三角碳排放空间关联网络结构特征及演化机制  

Structural characteristics and evolutionary mechanism of spatial correlation network of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：俞洁 张勇 李清瑶[1] YU Jie;ZHANG Yong;LI Qing-yao(School of Economics and Management,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310018,China;Institute of Quality Economics,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学经济与管理学院,杭州310018 [2]中国计量大学质量经济研究所,杭州310018

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2024年第2期372-391,共20页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：浙江省软科学研究计划重点项目(2020C25033);浙江省科技计划软科学重点项目(2020C25030);浙江省大学生科研创新活动计划资助项目(2022R409B048)。

摘　　要：基于长三角41个城市数据,以引力模型构建长三角碳排放空间关联网络,利用社会网络分析方法和动态指数随机图模型(TERGM)识别网络的结构特征及演化机制。结果发现:(1)长三角碳排放空间关联日益密切,网络复杂性和稳定性日益提升,但仍存在较大合作潜力;(2)安徽和江苏北部城市构成净溢出板块,上海和江苏南部城市构成净受益板块,省际交界地带和浙江省内城市构成经纪人板块,板块间存在较多双向溢出渠道,且板块内存在“俱乐部”集聚现象;(3)“经纪人”连接结构和核心节点主导连接结构在网络演化中发挥了关键作用,网络演化由链式结构驱动向闭合式结构驱动发展,但城市间以邻为壑的发展策略阻碍了合作减排;(4)互惠性等内生结构有助于网络的形成,对外开放等行为者—关系能力则需通过市场调节等四种机制来促进网络演化,该网络的演化兼具路径依赖和路径创造特征。Based on the data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),the gravity model is used to construct a spatial correlation network of carbon emissions.Social network analysis methods and the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model(TERGM)are used to identify the structural characteristics and evolution mechanisms of the network.The findings are as follows:(1)The spatial association of carbon emissions in the YRD is becoming increasingly close,with enhanced network complexity and stability,yet the relatively low network density indicates significant potential for future cooperation.(2)Cities in Anhui and Northern Jiangsu constitute the net overflow plate,while Shanghai and cities in Southern Jiangsu form the net benefit plate.The interprovincial border areas and cities within Zhejiang constitute the broker plate.There are multiple bidirectional spillover channels among these plates,with evidence of"club"clustering within each plate.(3)The"broker"connectivity structure and the dominant connectivity structure of core nodes have played a crucial role in the evolution of the spatial correlation network of carbon emissions in the study area.The network evolution has transitioned from a chain-like structure driven development to a closed-loop structure driven development.However,the non-cooperative game strategy of prioritizing self-interest among cities has diminished the potential for cooperative emission reduction.(4)The endogenous structures of reciprocity,connectivity,and circularity contribute to the formation of the spatial correlation network of carbon emissions in the YRD region.The abilities of actors,such as external openness,industrial structure,green technological innovation,digital economic development,energy intensity,environmental regulations,and carbon sink pressure,require the mechanisms of resource endowment differentiation,market regulation,government macrocontrol,and technological innovation promotion to facilitate network evolution.The evolution of this network exhibits characteristics of both path

关 键 词：长三角 碳排放 空间关联网络 TERGM 社会网络分析 演化机制 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]