基于灰色关联模型的沿黄区域山东段生态安全综合评价及时空演化  

Ecological Security Comprehensive Evaluation and Spatial-Temporal Evolution Based on Grey Correlation Model in Shandong Section Along the Yellow River Area

作　　者：李磊[1] 谭振华[2] 李聪[3] 杜霞[1] LI Lei;TAN Zhen-hua;LI Cong(Zaozhuang University,Zaozhuang,Shandong 277160;Zibo Normal College,Zibo,Shandong 255130;Air Force Logistics Academy,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221000)

机构地区：[1]枣庄学院,山东枣庄277160 [2]淄博师范高等专科学校,山东淄博255130 [3]空军勤务学院,江苏徐州221000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2024年第4期43-50,56,共9页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41871151);山东省社会科学规划项目(18CGLJ31)。

摘　　要：以沿黄区域山东段为例,建立PSR模型构建生态安全评价指标体系,借助熵权法和灰色关联度模型对其2000—2018年展开生态安全综合评价,并进行时空演变分析。结果显示,整体上沿黄区域山东段生态安全水平呈现出波动中上升的趋势,由“不安全”向“比较安全”转变,子系统中生态响应和生态状态增加的幅度高于生态环境压力增大的幅度,生态环境有所好转;市级尺度下,山东段17地市生态安全水平有所提高,呈现出“下降-上升-下降”的倒“N”字形演变,生态安全类型以“一般安全”为主,高等级类型较少,城市生态安全问题比较严峻;城市生态安全内部空间差异明显,生态安全空间格局向东、向北转移,呈现出“东高西低”“北高南低”的高低错落分布,高等级生态安全区域从东部沿海向鲁北扩散,“临界安全”区域缩小至鲁中南和鲁西北。最后从生态环境治理与保护、优化调控三大空间、经济结构转型升级等方面提出优化路径,改善生态环境质量。Taking Shandong section of the Yellow River as the research area,using the PSR model on ecological security index system,based on the entropy method and grey correlation model,the paper conducted the ecological security comprehensive evaluation and spatial-temporal evolution analysis from 2000 to 2018 in Shandong section.The results showed that:the overall trend of ecological security level is rising in fluctuation and ecological security changed from unsafe state to safer state.In subsystems the ecological pressure is more and more increasing,the ecological state and the ecological response is more and more raising with the largest increase of the ecological response,but the increasing degree of ecological state and ecological response is higher than ecological pressure.In municipal scale the overall showed a trend of increase of ecological security level in 17 cities and evoluted in reciprocal N shape with downward-increasing-downward trend.The general safe is the mainly type of ecological security level with few high grade which indicated the ecological security would not be optimistic in Shandong section.There were significant differences of the evolution trends of ecological security in the 17 cities,with changing showing a transfer to eastward and northward areas.The spatial evolution of ecological security presented spatial pattern of north high south low and east high west low,the high type spread from the east coastal area to north area of Shandong section and the close safe appeared in south-central Shandong,north-west Shandong.Finally,the essay put forward optimization path to promote the ecological environment quality from aspects such as ecological environment governance and protection,optimal regulation of three major spaces and transformation and upgrading of economic structure.

关 键 词：生态安全评价 灰色关联度模型 时空格局 沿黄区域 山东段 

分 类 号：X82[环境科学与工程—环境工程]