我国猪肉价格波动特征及调控对策研究  

Analysis on Fluctuation Characteristics and Control Countermeasures of Pork Price in China

作　　者：侯森阳 石晶[1] HOU Sen-yang;SHI Jing(College of Economics and Management,Tarim University,Alar,Xinjiang 843300)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2024年第4期189-192,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：我国作为全球第一大猪肉生产和消费大国,无论是猪肉的需求端——广大百姓,还是猪肉的供应端——养殖户都与猪肉价格息息相关,猪肉价格频繁波动,不仅对生猪产业的健康发展不利,而且会影响到广大居民的日常生活,甚至影响社会安定。通过建立H-P滤波模型对2012—2021年的猪肉价格变动进行了较为全面的分析,得到了猪肉价格的周期性和趋势性变化特征;并且根据猪肉价格季节性和周期性波动的原因提出了相关政策建议,以保证猪肉市场的稳定和健康发展。As the world’s largest pork production and consumption country,whether it is the demand side of pork—the majority of the people,or the supply side of pork—farmers are closely related to pork prices.The frequent fluctuation of pork prices is not only detrimental to the healthy development of the pig industry,but also affects the daily life of the majority of residents,and even affects social stability.Through the establishment of H-P filter model,this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the pork price changes from 2012 to 2021,and obtains the cyclical and trend changes of pork price.According to the seasonal and cyclical fluctuations of pork prices,relevant policy recommendations are proposed to ensure the stable and healthy development of the pork market.

关 键 词：猪肉价格波动 H-P滤波模型 调控对策 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]