中国农业水土资源时空匹配特征及影响因素研究  

Spatiotemporal matching characteristics and influencing factors of agriculturalwater and soil resources in China

作　　者：黄梓鑫 李晶[1] 楚晶晶 李亚楠 马真臻[2] 梁佳欣 HUANG Zixin;LI Jing;CHU Jingjing;LI Ya′nan;MA Zhenzhen;LIANG Jiaxin(College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Elane Inc.,Beijing 100073,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)地球科学与测绘工程学院,北京100083 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [3]亿海蓝(北京)数据技术股份公司,北京100073

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第2期116-124,共9页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41501564)。

摘　　要：分析农业水土资源的时空匹配特征与影响因素,可为农业水土资源优化配置提供科学依据。以中国除港澳台的31个省(自治区、直辖市)为研究对象,运用基尼系数法和农业水土资源匹配系数法对2009~2019年的农业水土资源时空匹配特征进行评价分析,并利用Sen+Mann-Kendall法分析农业水土资源匹配系数的变化趋势,最后运用面板回归模型探究变化的主要影响因素。研究结果表明:①2019年与2009年相比,中国水资源总量增加4860.90亿m^(3),耕地面积总量减少75295 km^(2),农业水土资源匹配系数由0.6018升高到0.6652,整体仍高度不匹配且呈不显著变差的趋势。②中国各省(自治区、直辖市)农业水土资源匹配整体呈现“西南优于东北,边缘优于腹地,林区优于农区,山丘优于平原”的空间格局。③北京农业水土资源匹配系数显著下降,上海、广西、重庆、贵州、云南以及宁夏显著上升。④农业用水量和人均水资源量是影响农业水土资源匹配的主要因子。中国农业水土资源匹配协调度仍处于高度不平衡状态,依据匹配系数划分不同等级的调控区并制定差异化的调控措施是缓解农业水土资源匹配不协调的有效途径。Analyzing the spatiotemporal matching characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural water and soil resources across can provide a scientific basis for the rational allocation of agricultural water and soil resources.We took 31 provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities in China as the research objects.The Gini coefficient method and agricultural water and soil resource matching coefficient method were used to evaluate and analyze the spatiotemporal matching characteristics of agricultural water and soil resources across the country and provinces from 2009 to 2019.The Sen-MK method was used to analyze the trend of changes in agricultural water and soil matching coefficients across provinces over the past 11 years.Finally,a panel regression model was used to explore the main influencing factors of their changes.The results are as follows:firstly,compared to 2009,the total water resources in China increased by 486.09 billion cubic meters,and the total arable land area decreased by 75295 km^(2) in 2019.The matching coefficient of agricultural water and soil resources increased from 0.6018 to 0.6652,indicating a high degree of mismatch and a trend of insignificant deterioration overall.Secondly,from the perspective of spatial pattern,the overall matching of agricultural water and soil resources in various provinces of China showed a spatial pattern of"the Southwest is better than the Northeast,marginal area is better than central area,forest area is better than agricultural area,and mountain area is better than plain area".Thirdly,from the perspective of temporal changes,the agricultural water and soil matching coefficient in Beijing has significantly decreased,while Shanghai,Guangxi,Chongqing,Guizhou,Yunnan,and Ningxia have significantly increased.Fourthly,agricultural water consumption and per capita water resources are the main factors affecting the matching of agricultural water and soil resources.In a word,the coordination degree of agricultural water and soil resource matching in China stayed high

关 键 词：农业水土资源 基尼系数 农业水土资源匹配系数 Sen+Mann-Kendall 面板回归模型 

分 类 号：S717[农业科学—林学]