中国性别失衡转变与家庭发展:基于人口普查与公开数据的发现  

The Transition of Gender Imbalance and Family Development in China:Findings Based on National Population Census and Public Data

作　　者：李树茁[1] 王晓璇[1] 杨博[2] LI Shuzhuo;WANG Xiaoxuan;YANG Bo(School of Public Policy and Administration,Xi′an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China;International Business School,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《人口与发展》2024年第1期29-40,共12页Population and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目“脆弱性视角下农村家庭发展风险及形成机制与政策研究”(22YJC840034);陕西省社科基金项目“乡村振兴视角下陕西农村脱贫家庭发展稳定性研究”(2022F008)。

摘　　要：中国出生性别比失衡已经持续40余年,性别失衡后果和风险正在由个体扩散至家庭层面,对家庭发展产生深远影响,但现有研究缺乏基于宏观数据对二者变化态势的基本认识。使用2000—2020年全国人口普查和统计年鉴等公开数据,基于人口和家庭转型背景,从家庭结构-功能构建家庭发展指数,实证分析最近20年性别失衡转变和家庭发展的时空变化情况,探讨性别失衡转变和家庭发展的关系。研究发现,中国性别失衡正在进入出生性别比持续下降、后果开始显现的转变阶段,省际因人口、经济、社会等发展差异呈现不同阶段特征;中国家庭发展整体水平较低,当面临性别失衡转变时,存在结构功能发展不协调、地区间发展不平衡和总体发展不充分的问题。建议继续加强引导出生性别比回归正常以减少各年龄段性别结构失衡累积,积极探索面向家庭的性别失衡后果治理,充分考虑家庭发展的地区差异和所处阶段,兼顾家庭结构和功能协调发展,促进人口长期均衡与可持续发展。The sex ratio at birth(SRB)in China has been abnormally high for over 40 years,posing significant risks and consequences to both individuals and families,with far-reaching implications for family development.This study aims to investigate the transition of gender imbalance and its impact on family development in China by analyzing recent public data,including the national population census and statistical yearbook since 2000.The findings reveal that China′s gender imbalance is entering a transformational stage,characterized by a gradual decline in the sex ratio at birth and the emergence of consequences associated with gender imbalance.However,this transformation occurs at varying rates across provinces due to differences in population,economic,and social development levels.Furthermore,the overall level of family development in China remains relatively low,which results in structural-functional development imbalances,regional disparities,and inadequate overall development in response to the transformation of gender imbalance.Addressing this issue requires measures to normalize the SRB and reduce gender structure imbalances across different age groups.Governance measures must also be implemented to mitigate the consequences of gender imbalance for families while considering regional disparities and the various stages of development.Additionally,balancing the development of family structure and function is vital to promoting long-term population balance and sustainability.

关 键 词：性别失衡 家庭发展 人口转变 家庭转变 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]