中国三大城市群PM_(2.5)浓度非线性变化分析  

Nonlinear Variations in PM_(2.5) Concentration in the Three Major Urban Agglomerations in China

作　　者：吴舒祺 顾杨旸 张天岳 赵文吉[1] WU Shu-qi;GU Yang-yang;ZHANG Tian-yue;ZHAO Wen-ji(College of Resource Environment and Tourism,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048

出　　处：《环境科学》2024年第2期709-720,共12页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071422)。

摘　　要：以三大城市群为研究区,基于PM_(2.5)浓度数据,利用ITA和Beast方法定量分析PM_(2.5)时间序列的非线性变化过程.结果表明:①三大城市群PM_(2.5)污染程度下降明显,高浓度区域明显缩小;PM_(2.5)浓度空间极化程度降低,空间差异缩小.大多数地区的PM_(2.5)浓度都具有下降的趋势,但变化程度并不相同.京津冀PM_(2.5)浓度相较于长三角和珠三角,仍处于较高水平.②三大城市群PM_(2.5)浓度具有冬春季高、夏秋季低的季节变化特征.冬季与夏季PM_(2.5)浓度差异明显,PM_(2.5)浓度在夏季的收敛性大于冬季.PM_(2.5)浓度高的区域下降趋势明显,但珠三角的PM_(2.5)浓度下降趋势相较于长三角和京津冀不明显.③三大城市群PM_(2.5)浓度时间序列均具有显著下降趋势,且京津冀>长三角>珠三角;PM_(2.5)浓度在冬季下降趋势最大.PM_(2.5)污染等级越高,下降趋势越明显.④京津冀PM_(2.5)浓度时间序列趋势分量具有两个突变点,季节分量中具有一个突变点;长三角PM_(2.5)浓度时间序列的趋势分量和季节分量均无突变点;珠三角PM_(2.5)浓度时间序列的季节分量无突变点,趋势分量具有一个突变点.结果可为区域空气污染治理相关工作的开展提供科学的参考.ITA and Beast methods were used to quantitatively analyze the nonlinear process of a PM_(2.5) concentration time series based on the PM_(2.5) concentration data of the three major urban agglomerations in China.The results showed that:①the degree of the PM_(2.5) pollution in the three major urban agglomerations had decreased,and the high-concentration areas had noticeably shrunk.The degree of spatial polarization of PM_(2.5) concentration was reduced,and the spatial difference was narrowed.The PM_(2.5) concentration in most areas showed downward trends,but the degree of change was not the same.Compared with the YRD and PRD,the concentration of PM_(2.5) in the BTH was still at a relatively high level.②The concentration of PM_(2.5) in the three major urban agglomerations had seasonal variation characteristics that were high in winter and spring and low in summer and autumn.There were obvious differences in PM_(2.5) concentration between winter and summer,and the convergence of PM_(2.5) concentration in summer was greater than that in winter.Areas with high PM_(2.5) concentration also had obvious downward trends,but the downward trends of PM_(2.5) concentration in the PRD were not obvious compared with those in the YRD and BTH.③The PM_(2.5) concentration time series of the three major urban agglomerations all had significant downward trends:Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)>the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)>the Pearl River Delta(PRD).The PM_(2.5) concentration had the largest downward trends in winter.The higher the PM_(2.5) pollution level,the greater the downward trends.④The trend component of the PM_(2.5) concentration time series in the BTH had two change points,and there was one change point in the seasonal component.The trend and seasonal components of the PM_(2.5) concentration time series in the YRD had no change point.There was no change point in the seasonal component but one change point in the trend component of the PM_(2.5) concentration time series in the PRD.These results can provide scientific references

关 键 词：PM_(2.5) 创新趋势分析(ITA) 季节和趋势突变的贝叶斯估计(Beast) 非线性变化 趋势 突变 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]