三大主流船型运输市场走势前瞻  

Prospects for the trend of three major shipping markets

作　　者：彭晨阳 王元昊 

机构地区：[1]中国船舶集团经济研究中心

出　　处：《中国远洋海运》2023年第12期42-46,8,9,共7页Maritime China

摘　　要：关键提示预计2023年油船船队规模同比增速仅为2.2%,2024年为0.5%,处于极低水平。船舶降速将进一步限制有效运力供给,而油品海运贸易活动继续回暖,供给和需求将共同支撑市场基本面的持续改善,油船运价在短期内存在继续上涨的潜力。受全球经济增长疲软、主要货种海运贸易量扩张有限等因素的共同影响,预计干散货海运需求增长平缓,但考虑到航运降速、老旧船舶拆解规模加快、新船交付规模延续低位等因素,船队运力供给增速将处于历史低位水平。综合来看,2024年干散货航运市场大概率将呈现供需双弱格局,运价将维持低位震荡走势。Since 2023,the market trends of three major ship types have diverged.The tanker market has entered an upward channel of recovery,the dry bulk shipping market has been weak,and the container shipping market has been under pressure.Looking forward to 2024,the relationship between supply and demand in the tanker market will continue to improve,and the freight rate has the potential to continue to recover.

关 键 词：船队规模 市场基本面 持续改善 海运贸易 老旧船舶 运价 低位震荡 降速 

分 类 号：F55[经济管理—产业经济]