新冠疫情以来中国的出生人口波动解析  

An Analysis of Birth Fluctuation in China Since the COVID-19 Pandemic

作　　者：张翠玲[1] 封婷[2] 郑真真[2] ZHANG Cuiling;FENG Ting;ZHENG Zhenzhen(China Population and Development Research Center,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Population and Labor Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081 [2]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100710

出　　处：《人口与社会》2024年第1期1-13,共13页Population and Society

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“全面两孩政策背景下二孩净效应估计研究课题”(20BRK047)。

摘　　要：持续三年的新冠疫情对全球人口变动产生明显的影响,包括非常规的生育减少、死亡增加和迁移的迟滞。由于疫情传播的严重程度、疫情的疾病负担、疫情传播与控制对社会经济的影响程度、民众的健康风险认知以及受疫情影响的持续时间不同,一些国家的出生人口出现了模式不同的波动。近年来中国出生人口数的加速下降和波动,是新冠疫情带来的推迟效应与中国出生人口数下降大趋势叠加的结果,未来两年可能有一定数量的补偿性生育,但仍将延续初婚和生育推迟的基本趋势。The COVID-19 pandemic,which has lasted for three years,has had a marked impact on global population changes,including unconventional reductions in births,increases in deaths and delays in migration.Because the severity of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic,the disease burden of the pandemic,the degree of socio-economic impact of its spread and control,and the public's perception of health risks differ,the duration of exposure to the epidemic has varied,and as a result,births in several countries have fluctuated in different patterns.The accelerated decline and fluctuation in the number of births in China in recent years is the result of the superimposition of the delayed effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the general trend of declining births.There may be a certain number of compensatory births over the next two years,but the basic trend of delayed first marriages and births will continue.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 出生人口 推迟效应 月度出生模式 补偿性生育 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]