中国结构性货币政策规则——基于制造业中长期贷款的理论分析与实证检验  

China's Structural Monetary Policy Rules-Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Verification Based on Mid-and Long-Term Loans in Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：曹廷求[1] 庞念伟 彭江波[2] Cao Tingqiu;Pang Nianwei;Peng Jiangbo

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,济南250100 [2]中国人民银行山东省分行,济南250014

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2024年第1期46-65,205,共21页Social Sciences in China

摘　　要：结构性货币政策是中国特色宏观经济治理体系的重要构成。近年来其重要性明显提升,政策规则不断演进。政策定位从前期的弥补总量货币政策失衡拓展为服务高质量发展,政策目标由前期的关注信贷投放精准性转化为关注政策结构性效果。将我国2019年以来实施的扩大制造业中长期贷款政策视为准自然实验,构建双重差分模型,在模型中纳入产业关联关系,对政策效果进行全过程、系统性检验,可以发现:该政策对制造业投资有促进作用,具有很强的精准性,产生了明显的结构性效果;该政策在制造业内部的上下游企业间具有溢出效应,溢出效应不仅不会显著影响政策结构性效果的实现,在政策作用于下游行业时,反而能够强化政策效果,发挥加速器作用。系统考察结构性货币政策的过程特征及制约因素,对于优化政策设计,提升金融服务高质量发展能力,具有重要意义。Structural monetary policy is an important component of the macroeconomic governance system with Chinese characteristics.In recent years,its importance has been growing,and policy rules have continued to evolve.Policy positioning has expanded from compensating for the imbalance in aggregate monetary policy in the early stage to serving high-quality development,while the policy goal has changed from focusing on the accuracy of credit delivery in the early stage to focusing on the structural effects of the policy.Treating China's policy of expanding medium-and long-term loans for manufacturing industry since 2019 as a quasi-natural experiment,we constructed a difference-in-difference model that included industrial correlations and tested the effect of the policy in a full-process and systematic manner.The results show that the policy has had the highly accurate promotional effect on manufacturing investment and has produced marked structural effects.It has had a spillover effect on upstream and downstream enterprises within manufacturing industry,but the spillover effect has not only failed to significantly affect the realization of the structural effect,but has also been able to strengthen the policy effect and play an accelerator role when the policy acts on downstream industries.Systematically examining the process characteristics and constraints of structural monetary policy is of great significance for optimizing policy design and improving the ability to develop high-quality financial services.

关 键 词：结构性货币政策 直接冲击 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]