2023年中国天然气发展述评及2024年展望  

Development of China's natural gas:Review 2023 and outlook 2024

作　　者：高芸[1] 王蓓[1] 胡迤丹 高钰杰 胡奥林[4] GAO Yun;WANG Bei;HU Yidan;GAO Yujie;HU Aolin(Research Institute of Natural Gas Economy,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;CCDC Hotel Management Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610021,China;Chengdu Branch of CNPC Global Business Operation Company Limited,Chengdu,Sichuan 610052,China;PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田公司天然气经济研究所 [2]中国石油集团川庆钻探工程有限公司酒店管理公司 [3]中国石油集团共享运营有限公司成都中心 [4]中国石油西南油气田公司

出　　处：《天然气工业》2024年第2期166-177,共12页Natural Gas Industry

摘　　要：为了助力产业高质量发展、助推中国式现代化建设,收集、整理、分析了中国天然气行业2023年的各项指标、数据和动态,论述和研判了2023年中国天然气产业链各环节以及天然气市场的热点和亮点,进而展望了2024年中国天然气行业的发展前景。研究结果表明,2023年中国天然气发展稳中有进、不乏亮点,主要表现在:(1)天然气勘探全面开花,预计新增天然气探明地质储量或创历史新高;(2)天然气生产稳中有进,全年共生产天然气2 324×10^(8)m^(3),年增产量近123×10^(8)m^(3);(3)天然气进口量增价跌(共进口天然气1 655.6×10^(8)m^(3)),其中LNG进口量重返世界第一(进口量为984.2×10^(8)m^(3));(4)天然气需求量小幅度反弹,天然气表观消费量达3 915.5×10^(8)m^(3),天然气对外依存度为40.6%,市场供应平稳;(5)天然气基础设施建设方兴未艾,LNG接收站、天然气长输管道和地下储气库建设有新进展;(6)在推进实现碳达峰碳中和目标和建设新型能源体系的形势下,油气生产企业大力拓展新能源业务;(7) LNG重卡销量创历史新高(共销售15.19万辆),用气增量异军突起;(8)国家问政于民,新版《天然气利用政策》面向全社会征求意见。结论认为:(1)尽管中国天然气增量市场面临着煤炭“压舱石”和新能源的竞争,但天然气仍然是中国能源结构低碳化发展过程中的桥梁和支柱,不可或缺;(2)预计2024年天然气勘探力度不减,探明天然气地质储量增势依旧;(3)天然气生产稳中有进,增产量与2023年相当;(4)天然气进口量将大幅度增加,天然气进口均价将继续下降;(5)天然气需求量平稳增长,市场供应宽松。In order to promote high-quality development and Chinese-style modernization drive,the paper analyzes,discusses and evaluates the hot spots and highlights of China's natural gas industry chain and natural gas market in 2023 on the basis of various indicators,data and dynamics of the industry,and presents an outlook for the development in 2024.The results show that China's natural gas industry progressed steadily in 2023,with main highlights in eight aspects.First,natural gas exploration was conducted prosperously.It is estimated that the newly proven geological reserves of natural gas may have reached a record high.Second,natural gas production kept stable and even grew to a certain extent.In the whole year,2 324×10^(8)m^(3) natural gas was produced,and the annual production increment was nearly 123×10^(8)m^(3).Third,natural gas import increased in volume but at a lower price.A total of 1 655.6×10^(8)m^(3) natural gas was imported,including 984.2×10^(8)m^(3) LNG which made China the word's largest LNG importer again.Fourth,natural gas demand rebounded slightly,with the apparent consumption reaching 3 915.5×10^(8)m^(3),and the reliance on gas import being 40.6%,while the market supply was stable.Fifth,infrastructure construction was performed under full swing,with new progress made in LNG terminals,long-distance gas pipelines and underground gas storage.Sixth,oil and gas producing companies made great efforts in new energy businesses,driven by the "dual carbon" goals and the need to build a new energy system.Seventh,the sales of LNG heavy-duty trucks reached a record high at 151 900,being an outshining contributor to the increase in gas consumption.Eight,the state would launch relevant policy.The new version of Natural Gas Utilization Policy was issued for public consultation.The following conclusions were made accordingly.First,in spite of the competition from coal,the stabilizer in the domestic market,and from new energies,natural gas remains an indispensable pillar in the low-carbon energy mix.Second,in 20

关 键 词：中国 天然气 勘探开发 储量产量 消费量 进口量 基础设施建设 发展展望 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]