房价溢出对居民消费倾向的影响研究——基于房价趋同视角  

A Study on the Impact of Housing Price Spillover on Residents'Consumption Propensity:Based on the Perspective of Housing Price Convergence

作　　者：牛童 李永[1] 唐聪聪 章容洲 By Niu Tong;Li Yong;Tang Congcong;Zhang Rongzhou

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院 [2]中国宏观经济研究院 [3]对外经济贸易大学金融学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2024年第1期114-127,共14页Macroeconomics

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金“重大突发公共事件下我国系统性金融风险溢出时频域特征与传导顺序研究”(项目编号:22YJA790033)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于各地房价同质化视角,通过70个城市的面板数据,实证分析了异地房价溢出对本地居民平均消费水平的影响。结果表明:异地房价对当地房价的同质化溢出会抑制居民消费水平,即使这种影响并未直接反映在后期房价上,居民仍可能因为察觉到这一趋势而调整消费行为;三线城市的同质化水平最高且作为主要的房价溢出接收方,相较于一、二线城市,其挤出效应较财富效应和替代效应更明显,所以房价溢出对居民消费水平的削弱作用更加显著;房地产行业依赖度低的城市,居民在受到压力感知情形下对消费支出有更明显的挤出作用,但限购政策对房价溢出具有“屏蔽”功能,起到了一定缓解作用。Based on the perspective of hom⁃ogenization of local house prices,this article empir⁃ically analyzes the impact of heterogeneous house price spillovers on the average consumption level of local residents through a panel data of 70 cities.The results show that:the homogenization spillover of foreign house price to local house price will inhibit the consumption level of residents,even if this effect is not directly reflected in the later house price,the residents may still adjust their consump⁃tion behavior because of the detection of this trend;the third-tier cities have the highest level of hom⁃ogenization and act as the main recipients of housing price spillover,and compared with the first-tier cities and second-tier cities,the crowding-out effect is more obvious than the wealth effect and the substitution effect,so the weakening effect of hous⁃ing price spillover on residents’consumption level is more significant;in cities with low dependence on real estate industry,residents have more obvious crowding out effect on consumption expenditure under pressure perception,but the policy of restricting purchases on housing price spillover has the function of‘shielding’to alleviate the effect to a certain extent.

关 键 词：房价溢出 居民消费 城市等级 限购政策 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F126.1