基于PLUS模型的长江流域土地利用变化模拟与多情景预测  

Land use simulation and multi-scenario prediction of the Yangtze River Basin based on PLUS model

作　　者：牛统莉 熊立华[1] 陈杰[1] 周研来[1] 尹家波[1] 刘德地[1] NIU Tongli;XIONG Lihua;CHEN Jie;ZHOU Yanlai;YIN Jiabo;LIU Dedi(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2024年第2期129-141,151,共14页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:2240201,41890822);中国三峡集团科研项目(编号:0799254)。

摘　　要：长江流域作为我国重要的生态-经济发展地区,科学合理地调控土地利用变化对实现其生态、经济协调发展至关重要。基于斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS)模型,综合考虑自然因素和社会经济因素,选取20个驱动因子分析了长江流域1985—2020年35 a间土地利用时空变化格局及其驱动力,并设定惯性发展、耕地保护和生态优先3种情景,对2050年长江流域土地利用进行模拟分析,以满足流域不同发展目标导向下的国土空间优化配置。结果表明:1)长江流域主要土地利用类型为林地、耕地和草地,占流域面积的95%以上,1985—2020年,建设用地面积持续增长,耕地、草地面积不断减少;建设用地单一、土地利用动态度最高为13.29%,1995—2000年综合土地利用动态度最高达0.62%;2)PLUS模型对1985—2020年长江流域各类用地扩张驱动力分析均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)均低于0.15,模拟效果较好,其中建设用地扩张的最主要驱动因素为距乡镇距离与距火车站距离,以社会经济因素为主;3)PLUS模型在长江流域适用性强,不同时间步长、不同土地数量预测模型设定下,模型总体精度均高于92%,Kappa系数均高于0.88;4)3种情景下,建设用地扩张趋势依次为73.56%、7.37%、70.99%;耕地保护情景可有效约束建设用地扩张,生态优先情景可明显增加水域等生态用地。因此,落实耕地保护、生态优先政策以优化土地利用结构、提高土地利用效率对长江流域土地资源高效利用和生态环境的优化具有重要意义。Since the Yangtze River Basin is an important ecological-economic development area in China,scientific and rational regulation of land-use change is crucial to realize its coordinated development of ecology and economy.Based on the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,this paper comprehensively considers natural factors and socio-economic factors,and selects 20 driving factors to analyze the spatialtemporal change patterns and driving forces of land use in the Yangtze River Basin during the 35-year period from 1985 to 2020,and sets three scenarios such as inertial development,cropland protection,and ecological priority to simulate and analyze land use of the Yangtze River Basin in 2050,so as to meet the optimal allocation of land space under the guidance of different development goals in the basin.The results show that:1)the main land use types in the Yangtze River Basin are woodland,cropland,and grassland,accounting for more than 95%of the basin area.From 1985 to 2020,the area of construction land increased,while the area of cropland and grassland declined.The single land use dynamic degree of construction land was the highest(13.29%),and the comprehensive land utilization rate was the highest in 1995-2000,reaching 0.62%.2)The root mean square error(RMSE)of the PLUS model for the analysis of various land expansion driving forces in the Yangtze River Basin from 1985 to 2020 is below 0.15,so the simulation effect is good.The distance from the city center and the distance from the railway station are the two key factors driving the expansion of construction land,mainly social and economic factors.3)The PLUS model has strong applicability in the Yangtze River Basin.Under different time steps and land quantity prediction model,the overall accuracy of the model is higher than 92%,and the Kappa coefficient is higher than 0.88.4)Under the scenarios of inertial development,cropland protection and ecological priority,the expansion rate of construction land is 73.56%,7.37%and 70.99%,respectively.The cropland pro

关 键 词：土地利用变化 PLUS模型 土地利用变化驱动力 多情景 长江流域 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]