双层博弈视角下美国台海政策的新变化——以拜登政府为研究对象  

New Changes in US Taiwan Policy from the Perspective of the Two-Level Game:The Biden Administration as a Research Object

作　　者：薛振威 孙云[1] 郭立桥 Xue Zhenwei;Sun Yun;Guo Liqiao(Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies of Xiamen University)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究院

出　　处：《台海研究》2023年第4期94-106,共13页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

摘　　要：近年来,由于中美战略博弈加剧,拜登政府不断强化“以台制华”,对内利用国会“亲台势力”,妄图通过诸如“2022台湾政策法案”等涉台立法进一步虚化掏空一中原则;对外推行“印太战略”,不断提升美台“实质关系”,谋求将台湾地区问题“国际化”,同时企图干涉台湾地区领导人选举。然而,受限于美国国内政治的特点,国会对行政当局也会产生相当的施政压力。尤其中期选举后,拜登政府不得不面对“府会分立”的局面。国会企图利用更多的“涉台立法”重塑美台关系,使中美在台海发生冲突的风险陡然增加,而这却是拜登政府需要避免的。显然,国会不断激进的表现已经导致拜登政府的对台政策陷入双层博弈的两难困境。Due to the intensification of the US-China competition,the Biden administration is continuously strengthening the strategy of“Using Taiwan to Contain China”.In terms of domestic policy,the“pro-Taiwan forces”in US congress is managing to hollow out the One-China Principle through Taiwan-related legislation such as the“2022 Taiwan Policy Act”legislation.On foreign policy,the Biden administration is implementing its“Indo-Pacific Strategy”,upgrading US-Taiwan“substantive relationship”constantly,attempting to“internationalize”the Taiwan question,and intervening in the Taiwan Leadership Election.However,constrained by characteristics of US domestic politics,Congress also exerts considerable pressure on the administration.Especially after the midterm elections,the Biden administration had to face the situation of“Separation of Government and Congress”.Congress is attempting to reshape US-Taiwan relations with more“Taiwan-related Legislation”,which increased steeply the risk of conflict between the United States and China in Taiwan Straits.But this is what the Biden administration needs to avoid.Obviously,the increasingly aggressive performance of Congress has caught the Biden administration's Taiwan policy into the dilemma of a Two-Level Game.

关 键 词：双层博弈 台海政策 美国国会 “台湾政策法案” 2024台湾地区选举 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学] D675.8[政治法律—外交学]