2008-2022年徐州市艾滋病发病及死亡趋势分析  

Trend analysis of HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality in Xuzhou from 2008 to 2022

作　　者：张莹 张培栋[1] 周志伟 柴菲菲 孙传武[1] ZHANG Ying;ZHANG Peidong;ZHOU Zhiwei;CHAI Feifei;SUN Chuanwu(Department of STD/AIDS Prevention,Xuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xuzhou 221000,China)

机构地区：[1]徐州市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防制科,江苏徐州221000

出　　处：《东南大学学报（医学版）》2024年第1期104-110,共7页Journal of Southeast University(Medical Science Edition)

摘　　要：目的:分析徐州市2008-2022年艾滋病发病和死亡趋势,并探讨年龄、时期及队列对其的影响,为有效控制艾滋病提供科学指导。方法:采用Joinpoint回归方法和年龄-时期-队列模型分析徐州市2008-2022年艾滋病发病率和死亡率趋势。结果:2008-2022年徐州市艾滋病总人口和男性发病率平均每年增长13.93%[平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)=13.93%,P<0.001]和18.78%(AAPC=18.78%,P<0.001);总人口和男性死亡率平均每年增长6.15%[年度变化百分比(APC)=AAPC=6.15%,P=0.001]和10.48%(AAPC=10.48%,P=0.001),女性死亡率平均每年下降4.93%(APC=AAPC=-4.93%,P=0.016)。2008-2022年徐州市艾滋病总人口发病率纵向年龄曲线呈“J”形上升趋势,死亡率纵向年龄曲线呈波动上升趋势。男性和女性艾滋病发病率和死亡率的时期RR值均先上升后下降。队列效应显示男性发病风险峰值在2003-2007年出生的队列;女性发病风险峰值在1968-1972年出生的队列。总人口和男性死亡风险出生队列效应整体呈现平稳状态;女性出生队列死亡风险波动较小。结论:2008-2022年徐州市总人口艾滋病发病率和死亡率均呈现上升趋势,男性发病和死亡风险均高于女性。老年群体艾滋病发病和死亡风险较大,在2003-2007年出生的男性队列艾滋病发病风险最高。Objective:To analyze the trends of HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality in Xuzhou from 2008 to 2022,and explore the influence of age,period and cohort on HIV/AIDS,so as to provide scientific guidance for effective HIV control.Methods:Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the trends of incidence and mortality of HIV/AIDS in Xuzhou from 2008 to 2022.Results:From 2008 to 2022 in Xuzhou,the incidence of HIV/AIDS in the total population and males average annually increased by 13.93%[average annual percent change(AAPC)=13.93%,P<0.001]and 18.78%(AAPC=18.78%,P<0.001),respectively.The mortality of HIV/AIDS in the total population and males average annually increased by 6.15%[annual percent change(APC)=AAPC=6.15%,P=0.001]and 10.48%(AAPC=10.48%,P=0.001),respectively,while in female average annually declined 4.93%(APC=AAPC=-4.93%,P=0.016).From 2008 to 2022,the longitudinal age curve of the incidence of HIV/AIDS showed a“J”-shaped upward trend,and the longitudinal age curve of the mortality of HIV/AIDS showed a fluctuating upward trend among total population in Xuzhou.The period RR values of HIV incidence and mortality increased first and then decreased for both male and female.The cohort effect showed that the peak risk was in the male cohort born between 2003 and 2007,while for female was in the cohort born between 1968 and 1972.The birth cohort effect of total population and male mortality risk remained stable.The risk of death in the female birth cohort fluctuated less.Conclusion:The incidence and mortality of HIV/AIDS in the total population of Xuzhou showed an increasing trend from 2008 to 2022,and the incidence and mortality risk of males were higher than those of females.The risk of HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality is greater in older age groups,and the highest incidence in the male cohort born between 2003 and 2007.

关 键 词：艾滋病 Joinpoint回归 年龄-时期-队列模型 发病率 死亡率 徐州 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]