“双碳”目标与宏观经济政策目标何以兼顾?  

How to Find a Balance Between"Dual Carbon"Goals and Macroeconomic Goals?

作　　者：卞晨 初钊鹏 孙正林 BIAN Chen;CHU Zhaopeng;SUN Zhenglin(School of Business Administration,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,China;School of Humanities and Law,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,China;School of Economics,Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao,Qinhuangdao 066004,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁沈阳110819 [2]东北大学文法学院,辽宁沈阳110819 [3]东北大学秦皇岛分校经济学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2024年第3期58-73,共16页East China Economic Management

基　　金：河北省在读研究生创新能力培养资助项目“区域关联视角下中国环境治理研究”(CXZZBS2023167)。

摘　　要：为兼顾“双碳”目标与宏观经济政策目标实现,文章构建了包含环境系统的NK-DSGE模型,同步引入财政收入与支出政策工具、货币政策工具以及碳税,在对中国季度宏观数据进行校准和估计的基础上,分析了宏观政策工具与碳税联合实施的政策效果,讨论了碳税税率变化、碳税规则变动对联合政策效果的影响及造成的社会福利损失。模拟结果显示,积极的财政政策、稳健的货币政策与碳税配合对“双碳”目标与宏观经济政策目标的实现优势更大。其中,财政政策在促增长方面具有优势,货币政策在控制通货膨胀方面发挥重要作用,碳税政策在促进碳减排方面效果显著。经进一步研究发现,提高碳税税率会造成社会福利损失增加,政府可通过调整碳税规则、改变政策目标偏好实现对社会福利的帕累托改进。In order to balance the"dual carbon"goals and macroeconomic goals,this paper brings multiple fiscal policy tools,monetary policy tools,and carbon tax into a NK-DSGE model that contains environment system.By calibrating and estimating China′s quarterly macroeconomic data,this paper analyzes the policy effect on the synergy of macro policy tools and carbon tax,and discusses the effects of changes in carbon tax rates and carbon tax rules on the effect of joint policies and social welfare loss.Simulation results show the combination of the active fiscal policy,the prudent monetary policy and the carbon tax has greater advantages for the realization of the"dual carbon"goals and the macroeconomic goals.Fiscal policy has an advantage in promoting economic growth;monetary policy plays an important role in control⁃ling inflation;and the effect of carbon tax in promoting carbon emission reduction is significant.A general finding is that the increase of the carbon tax rate will have the effect of increasing the loss of welfare.The government can achieve Pareto improvements in welfare by adjusting the carbon tax rules and changing the preference of policy objectives.

关 键 词：财政政策 货币政策 碳税 “双碳”目标 政策协调 政策模拟 动态随机一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]