印度国内政治冲突的空间分异及驱动因子  

Spatial differentiation and driving factors of domestic political conflicts in India

作　　者：蔡中祥[1] 黄哲琨 公茂玉[1] 郭勇[1] 胡盛铭 王岩 CAI Zhongxiang;HUANG Zhekun;GONG Maoyu;GUO Yong;HU Shengming;WANG Yan(Information Engineering University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]信息工程大学,郑州450001

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2024年第1期57-69,共13页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFB3900900);国家军民融合发展“十四五”重大工程项目(2020ZB**);国家科技部基础资源调查专项(2019FY202501)。

摘　　要：为揭示2010—2021年印度国内政治冲突的空间分异性成因,基于武装冲突地点和事件数据项目所收录的印度政治冲突数据,结合印度各邦驱动因素值,运用Z-score标准化、相关性分析等方法构建驱动因子体系,运用地理探测器对上述驱动因子进行探测,结果表明:(1)14个驱动因子全部通过了显著性检验,其中穆斯林人口比、民族数、非官方政党占比、人口密度等因素单因子驱动力较强。(2)进行双因子交互,各驱动因子交互后q值有明显增长,平均增长率为266%,可知印度国内政治冲突是由多种驱动因子共同作用的结果,具有多重叠加效应,呈现“1+1>2”的作用机制;宗教民族类因子与其他类交互后,对空间分异性的解释性最大。(3)印度应改善地区政治安全局势,应优先解决宗教对抗、民族分离、粮食产量不稳定、水资源合理利用等问题。In order to reveal the causes of the spatial differentiation of political conflicts in India from 2010 to 2021,the driving factor system was constructed and optimized by Z-score standardization and correlation analysis based on the data of political conflicts in India included in the armed conflict location and event Data Project,combined with the driving factor values of various Indian states.The geographical detector is used to detect the above preferred driving factors.The results show that:(1)All the 14 preferred driving factors have passed the significance test,among which the Muslim population ratio,the number of ethnic groups,the proportion of non-official political parties,and the population density have strong single-factor driving forces.(2)After double-factor interaction,Q value increased significantly with an average growth rate of 266%after the interaction of all driving factors.It can be seen that the domestic political conflict in India is the result of the joint action of various driving factors and has multiple superposition effects,showing"1+1>2"mechanism of action;After the interaction between religious and ethnic factors and other categories,the explanation of spatial differentiation is the largest.(3)To improve the political and security situation in the region,India should give priority to solving such problems as religious confrontation,ethnic separation,unstable grain output and rational use of water resources.

关 键 词：政治冲突 空间分异性 驱动因子 地理探测器 印度 

分 类 号：D735.1[政治法律—政治学]