地缘经济与人口资源耦合协调研究——以东北亚地区为例  

Research on the coupling and coordination of geo-economy and population resources:A case study of the Northeast Asia Region

作　　者：李淑琴 彭飞[2] 刘春涛[3] 王浩然 LI Shuqin;PENG Fei;LIU Chuntao;WANG Haoran(School of Geography&The Center for Asian Geographical Studies,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510631,China;Institute of Marine Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China;Shenyang Urban Planning&Design Institute,Shenyang 110004,China)

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学地理科学学院/亚洲地理研究中心,广州510631 [2]辽宁师范大学海洋可持续发展研究院,大连116029 [3]沈阳市规划设计研究院,沈阳110004

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2024年第1期70-82,共13页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271253);辽宁省教育厅面上项目(LIKMR20221386)。

摘　　要：人口资源日益成为区域发展和国家间地缘经济博弈的核心要素,全球范围内人口问题的普遍性使得探讨其与地缘经济间耦合协调关系成为新的议题。本研究聚焦东北亚地区中国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯、蒙古等五国,运用熵权法和耦合协调度模型,对1999—2020年间地缘经济与人口资源的发展水平和耦合协调水平进行测度。结果显示:①尽管各国在地缘经济和人口资源发展上整体上升,但差异显著。中国发展迅速且均衡,日本相对疲软,韩国在两方面均稳定增长,而俄罗斯和蒙古发展缓慢,俄罗斯更显孱弱。②耦合协调方面,东北亚地区正从磨合期过渡到初步协调阶段,2020年,除蒙古呈现同步型相对发展特征外,其余国家均呈人口资源滞后型。③针对当前问题,从提升区域创新水平、打造区域利益共同体、缓解区域人口老龄化三方面为东北亚地区应对人口资源与地缘经济耦合协调挑战提出建议。Population resources have become a central element in regional development and international geo-economic competition.With the increasing prominence of population resource issues globally,exploring the coupling and coordination relationship between geo-economics and population resources has emerged as a new research field.This study focuses on five Northeast Asian countries:China,Japan,South Korea,Russia,and Mongolia.It employs the entropy weight method and coupling coordination degree model to quantitatively analyze the development levels of geo-economics and population resources from 1999 to 2020,as well as the coupling and coordination level between them.The findings indicate that while there is a general upward trend in the development levels of geo-economics and population resources among these countries,significant differences exist between them.China shows rapid and balanced development in both aspects,whereas Japan exhibits a weaker performance.South Korea,as a developed country,maintains steady growth in geo-economics,with its population quality also showing a positive trend.In contrast,Russia and Mongolia experience slower development,with Russia demonstrating a particularly fragile growth momentum.Regarding coupling and coordination,Northeast Asian countries have undergone an adjustment phase and are currently in the initial coordination stage,moving towards more coordinated development.However,the development of population resources significantly lags behind geo-economic progress.As of 2020,except for Mongolia,which shows synchronized development characteristics,the other countries exhibit a lag in population resources.Addressing these issues,the study proposes suggestions in three areas:enhancing regional innovation,building a regional community of shared interests,and alleviating regional population aging,to assist Northeast Asian countries in meeting the challenges of coupling and coordination between geo-economics and population resources.

关 键 词：地缘经济 人口资源 耦合协调 东北亚国家 

分 类 号：C924.1[社会学—人口学] F113