基于实际出行大数据的旅客机场选择行为研究——以京津冀机场群为例  

Research on Passenger Airport Choice Based on Actual Travel Data:the Case of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Airport Cluster

作　　者：程欢 胡时 何音 CHENG Huan;HU Shi;HE Yin(China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology,Beijing 100028,China;Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航科学技术研究院,北京100028 [2]北京师范大学,北京100091

出　　处：《民航学报》2024年第1期20-24,11,共6页Journal of Civil Aviation

基　　金：中国民航科学技术研究院基本科研业务费专项资金资助(X232060302552);全国统计科学研究项目“民航统计现代化改革问题研究”(2022LZ08)。

摘　　要：旅客的机场选择行为对机场发展具有重要影响,机场群内部由于腹地市场重叠和航线网络类似,旅客航空出行选择更为广泛,选择行为更为复杂。本文以京津冀机场群为例,基于实际出行大数据,采用双层多项式Logit(MNL)模型,研究区域多机场体系中影响旅客航空出行机场选择的关键因素及其具体影响。采用实际出行大数据建模,比常用的SP(Stated Preference意向调查)数据更贴合实际。研究结果表明航空旅客对于时间成本类因素更为敏感,不同区域人群对票价敏感程度呈现差异,航线类型、航班频次、机场准点性等都对旅客选择产生重要影响。基于研究结果,论文对如何促进机场群协同和差异化发展提出了建议。Passengers'airport choice behavior has an important impact on airport development.Because of market overlapping and network similarity inside an airport cluster,passengers'air travel choices are more extensive and the choice behavior is more complex.Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei airport cluster as an example,based on the actual travel data,this paper uses the double-layer Multi-nominal Logit(MNL)model to study the key factors affecting passengers'air travel airport choice in a multi-airport system and their specific effects.The actual travel data used is more realistic than the commonly used SP(Stated Preference Survey)data.The results show that air passengers are more sensitive to time cost factors,and the sensitivity of people in different regions to fares is different.Route types,flight frequency and airport punctuality all have important impact on passengers'choice.Based on the research results,the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to promote the collaborative and differential development of airport cluster.

关 键 词：机场群 机场选择 出行大数据 双层MNL模型 

分 类 号：V35[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]