基于复杂自适应系统与库龄策略的血液供应链绩效评估  

Performance Evaluation of Blood Supply Chain Based on Complex Adaptive System and Storage Age Strategy

作　　者：李志[1] 张熙培 周愉峰[1] 毛国伟 LI Zhi;ZHANG Xipei;ZHOU Yufeng;MAO Guowei(School of Management Science and Engineering,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学管理科学与工程学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《商学研究》2023年第6期106-117,共12页Commercial Science Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(22YJAZH059);重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(KJQN201900812);重庆市教委人文社会科学研究项目(22SKGH186);重庆工商大学研究生创新型科研项目(CYS22607)。

摘　　要：提升血液供应链保障绩效,有效应对临床血液需求,具有重要的实践意义。为此,文章基于复杂自适应系统视角,运用智能体建模方法研究血液供应链保障绩效演进问题。以血小板为研究对象,集成物流、信息流和效益流,采用数学语言描述血液供应链各Agent的行为方式,并分析供应链系统的总体特征。利用Anylogic平台构建一个考虑血制品库龄,由医院Agent、血液中心Agent、献血车Agent以及献血者Agent组成的四级供应链模型;对血液供应链系统的总体特征进行了仿真分析;针对血液供应链主要Agent的关键参数,做了敏感性分析。研究表明:(1)血液供应链系统具有复杂自适应特征。(2)考虑血制品库龄信息,可有效降低短缺率与过期率。(3)扩大初始献血者人数,加大宣传力度,均能降低血液中心Agent的短缺率,但同时会提高过期率。在初始献血者人数较少时,加大宣传力度对降低过期率的效果不明显;当初始献血者人数较多时,加大宣传力度对降低短缺率的效果同样不明显。(4)提高最大库存水平、缩短血小板保质期均能降低医院的血液短缺率,但也会提高过期率。当医院Agent最大库存水平较高时,缩短保质期对降低短缺率的效果不明显。研究成果有助于血液供应链重要节点的控制与决策优化,对血液供应链管理具有指导意义。It is of great practical significance to improve the security performance of blood supply chain and meet the needs of clinical blood with high quality.So,the Agent-based modeling(ABM)method is used to explore the security performance evolution mechanism of blood supply chain from the perspective of complex adaptive system.The behaviors of agents in blood supply chain are described by using mathematical language and the overall characteristics of supply chain system are analyzed by integrating material flow,information flow and benefit flow with platelet as the research object.A four-level supply chain considering the blood storage age is constructed which is composed of hospital agents,bloodmobile agents,blood center agents and blood donor agents based on the Anylogic platform.The simulation analysis is carried out on the overall characteristics of blood supply chain system,and the sensitivity analysis for some key parameters of important agents is given.The research results are as follows.Firstly,blood supply chain system is a complex adaptive system.Secondly,considering the storage age information of blood products can effectively reduce shortage rate and expiration rate.Thirdly,expanding the number of initial blood donors and strengthening publicity can reduce shortage rate of agent in blood centers,but increase expiration rate at the same time.When the number of initial blood donors is small,the effect of increasing publicity on reducing expiration rate is not obvious;when the number of initial blood donors is large,the effect of increasing publicity on reducing shortage rate is not obvious.Lastly,shortage rate of the hospital agent can be reduced while expiration rate can be increased by magnifying the order-up-to-level and shortening the shelf life of platelets.When the maximum inventory level of the hospital agent is high,decreasing the shelf life has little effect on reducing shortage rate.The research results are helpful for important nodes of blood supply chain to optimize the decision-making and contro

关 键 词：血液供应链 复杂自适应系统 ABM方法 库龄 绩效评估 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] F252.8[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]