比较优势视角下我国虚拟水流动归因分析  

Attribution analysis of virtual water flow in China from the perspective of comparative advantage

作　　者：何国华[1] 赵勇[1] 秦长海[1] 李溦 姜珊[1] 李雯晴 HE Guohua;ZHAO Yong;QIN Changhai;LI Wei;JIANG Shan;LI Wenqing(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2024年第1期1-11,共11页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200204);国家自然科学基金项目(52025093,52109042)。

摘　　要：虚拟水是近年来水资源领域的研究热点,而相关研究成果主要集中于虚拟水转移的规模核算及其特征分析,对虚拟水转移的动力成因较少讨论,所以借助比较优势理论中的区位商、增长商指数,量化解析农林牧渔、工业、建筑业、批发零售、交通运输、住宿餐饮、金融、房地产、其他服务业9大行业的发展优势及增长潜力,并分析这9大行业虚拟水流动格局与行业比较优势的相关关系。研究结果表明:各行业虚拟水流动格局与行业比较优势具有明显关联,2002—2017年间我国72%的虚拟水会从具有比较优势的地区向不具备优势的地区转移,71%的虚拟水转移量会受到行业发展速度影响。研究成果预期可为我国水资源宏观管理及节水政策制定提供理论依据及决策参考。决策参考。In the 1990s,British scholar Allan introduced the concept of virtual water to quantify the water resources consumed in economic activities.Water-scarce countries procure water-intensive products through commerce to ensure supply and water security.With worldwide conferences and forums debating it extensively,virtual water research has acquired at traction.Database searches reveal a total of 29,471 domestic and international research papers on virtual water,showing a consistent growth trend.However,the applicability of virtual water strategy varies across water-scarce regions,leading to debates over its effectiveness.Rooted in the theory of comparative advantage,virtual water strategy overlooks multifaceted influences.Currently,the predominant body of research is centered around the calculation of scale and analysis of characteristics related to virtual water transfer.However,the driving causes of virtual water transfer remain conspicuously scarce.Incorporated the theory of comparative advantage,the scientific validity and effectiveness of virtual water research were heightened.The virtual water flow patterns of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,industry,construction,wholesale and retail,transportation,accommodation,and catering sectors across Chinese provinces in 2007,2012 and 2017 were analyzed.Metrics such as the location quotient and growth quotient index were employed to establish the quantitative relationship between the pattern of virtual water flow and industrial comparative advantage.The results showed that the virtual water flow pattern in China was closely related to the industrial comparative advantage.The location quotient index can explain 72%of China’s virtual water transfer volume,while the growth quotient index substantiates 71%of China’s virtual water transfer change volume.The location and growth quotients of different industries are negatively correlated with the corresponding virtual water transfer volume and virtual water transfer change volume.This shows that virtual water as

关 键 词：虚拟水战略 行业比较优势 相关性 增长商 区位商 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]