渭河流域多时间尺度径流变化特征及主控因子  

Multi-time scale characteristics and dominant control factors of runoff in the Weihe River basin

作　　者：赵雯颉 鞠琴[1,2] 蔡辉艺 唐志阳 史启书 汪柔汐 李思锐 ZHAO Wenjie;JU Qin;CAI Huiyi;TANG Zhiyang;SHI Qishu;WANG Rouxi;LI Sirui(The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;National Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety&Hydro Science,Nanjing 210098,China;Fuzhou Planning&Design Research Insitute Group Co.,Ltd,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,南京210098 [2]水安全与水科学协同创新中心,南京210098 [3]福州市规划设计研究院集团有限公司,福州350108

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2024年第1期24-32,共9页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3201104);江苏省研究生科研创新与实践创新项目(422003285);江苏省大学生创新创业项目(202310294176Y,202310294012Z)。

摘　　要：为研究变化环境下渭河流域多时间尺度径流变化特征及影响因素,基于渭河流域咸阳水文站1961-2015年实测径流量数据,分析不同时间尺度上径流的变化趋势,并选取多个气象要素与归一化植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)构建向量自回归(vector autoregression,VAR)模型,量化各影响因素对径流变化的贡献程度,探讨全年、汛期和非汛期径流变化主控因子的差异性。结果表明,1961-2015年渭河流域径流整体呈下降趋势,汛期径流量占比为65.5%。在年代尺度上径流的丰枯变化存在差异,1970-1979年和1990-1999年径流量呈显著减少趋势;影响汛期和全年尺度径流变化的主控因子均为降水,贡献率达50%,其次是太阳辐射,在汛期和全年的贡献率分别为14.37%、18.45%。非汛期影响径流变化的主控因子为NDVI(贡献率30.08%)与太阳辐射(贡献率30.05%),且NDVI对径流变化的滞后效应更明显,其他因子贡献大小依次为降水、空气比湿、气温。Runoff is an important part of the hydrological cycle and can respond to environmental changes.The Weihe River is the first-class tributary of the Yellow River basin and is also the most important water resource supply area,agricultural irrigation,and industrial water use in Guanzhong.Due to natural reasons such as large topographic relief,loose and porous soil,uneven distribution of precipitation within the year,and the intensification of human activities,the basin is characterized by frequent alternating water and drought disasters,serious soil erosion,and is a resource-type water-scarce area.In recent years,with climate change and the intensification of human activities,the ecological environment of the Weihe River basin has become more fragile,and the hydrological situation has also changed to different degrees.Therefore,analyzing the change characteristics of runoff in the Weihe River basin on multiple time scales and its influencing factors can help to understand the change rules of the hydrological situation of the basin and water resources planning and management.Based on the measured runoff data from 1961 to 2015 at Xianyang Hydrological Station in the Weihe River basin,a linear regression method was used to analyze the trend of runoff on different time scales.Several meteorological factors such as temperature,specific humidity,precipitation,solar radiation,wind speed,and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)were selected.The factors were screened by the smoothness test and Granger causality test.Vector Autoregression models are constructed to quantify the contribution of each influential factor to the runoff changes,and the differences of the main controlling factors of the runoff changes throughout the year,flood season,and non-flood season are explored.The runoff showed a decreasing trend,with decreasing rates of 0.76,0.44,and 0.31 mm/(10 a)respectively during the whole year,flood season and non-flood season from 1961 to 2015 in the Weihe River basin.Flood season runoff accounted for 65.5%of th

关 键 词：径流 向量自回归模型 NDVI 主控因子 渭河流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]