城市暴雨强度公式复核——以杭州主城区为例  

Revisited urban rainfall intensity formula:An example of the main urban area of Hangzhou

作　　者：任泽凌 李彬权[1,2] 王国庆[3] 刘加进 鲍振鑫[3] 刘翠善[3] 张磊磊 REN Zeling;LI Binquan;WANG Guoqing;LIU Jiajin;BAO Zhenxin;LIU Cuishan;ZHANG Leilei(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety&Hydro Science,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China;The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Power China Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited,Hangzhou 311122,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]河海大学水安全与水科学协同创新中心,南京210024 [3]南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,南京210029 [4]中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,杭州311122

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2024年第1期80-89,共10页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3209204);杭嘉湖南排工程科研项目“立体韧性城市洪涝防控体系构建研究”。

摘　　要：在气候变化与快速城镇化共同影响下,很多城市暴雨特性发生变化,现行的暴雨强度计算公式可能不再适用,需要复核和更新。以杭州市主城区为例,根据钱塘江江畔闸口站1982—2022年降雨极值资料,分别选用皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布和耿贝尔分布曲线进行线型拟合,采用粒子群优化算法推求暴雨强度公式参数,与现行规范给出的暴雨强度公式进行复核分析。结果表明:在重现期为2~20 a时,根据皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布和耿贝尔分布推求得到暴雨强度新公式的平均绝对均方差均小于0.05 mm/min,平均相对均方差均小于5%,符合精度要求;仅当降雨历时为10 min时,2个新公式的暴雨强度要小于现行公式的暴雨强度,其他历时下2个新公式的暴雨强度都明显大于现行公式的暴雨强度;经合理性分析,本研究根据最新暴雨资料推求的暴雨强度公式可为杭州市主城区排水防涝工程设计和相关设施建设提供参考。Extreme rainstorms in many cities have broken historical records repeatedly,thus urban flooding disasters occur frequently.Under the background of global warming,extreme rainstorm events showed an increasing trend.In the past few decades,China's urbanization process advanced rapidly,and the rain island effect caused by rapid urbanization also led to the frequent occurrence of extreme rainstorm events to some extent.The characteristics of many urban rainstorms changed significantly,and the consistency of rainfall series no longer existed,so the current rainfall intensity formula may no longer be applicable.The rainfall intensity formula is one of the basic bases for the construction of urban drainage and waterlogging prevention infrastructure.To objectively reflect the characteristics and rules of urban rainfall and avoid underestimating the intensity of design rainstorms,the current formula needed to be reviewed and updated.The main urban area of Hangzhou was taken as an example,based on the rainfall extreme data from 1982 to 2022 at Zhakou station,the Mann-Kendall trend analysis method and the Pettitt test method were selected to analyze the trend and abrupt change of the annual rainfall extreme and selected Pearson type III distribution and Gumbel distribution curve for model fitting,respectively.The particle swarm optimization algorithm was used for parameter estimation of the rainfall intensity formula,and the newly derived rainfall intensity formulas were reviewed and analyzed.The rationality of the newly derived rainfall intensity formulas was indirectly analyzed using the rainfall extreme data of Gongchenqiao,Zhongcun,and Qibao rainfall stations and the extended historical rainfall extreme data of Zhakou station.The following results were obtained:(a)At the significance level of 0.05,the maximum rainfall series of 10,20,30,45,90,360,540 and 720 min at Zhakou station showed an insignificant downward trend.The annual maximum rainfall series of 60,120,180,240 and 1440 min showed an insignificant upward trend,

关 键 词：降雨极值 暴雨强度公式 皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布 耿贝尔分布 杭州 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]