深圳市极端降水时空演变特征分析  

Analysis of Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in Shenzhen

作　　者：王俊阳 史海匀 WANG Junyang;SHI Haiyun(Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Precision Measurement and Early Warning Technology for Urban Environmental Health Risks,Shenzhen 518055,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市城市环境健康风险精准测量与预警技术重点实验室,广东深圳518055 [2]南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院,广东深圳518055

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期59-72,共14页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：深圳市自然科学基金项目(JCYJ20210324105014039);深圳市城市环境健康风险精准测量与预警技术重点项目(ZDSYS20220606100604008)。

摘　　要：目前,关于深圳市降水方面的研究较多,而涉及极端降水特征的研究相对缺乏。基于中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集(1979-2018年)中的降水数据,结合极端降水指标,通过Mann-Kendall趋势分析法、Sen′s坡度法和小波分析法等从降水量、降水强度等方面分析了深圳市近40年极端降水的时空分布变化特征。结果表明:①深圳市极端降水频率及强度整体上南部强于北部,西部的上升趋势较东部更显著。极端降水高风险区的位置随城市化进程从分散趋于集中,在福田和罗湖两区最为稳定。②极端降水高风险区的月均暴雨日数和月最大日降水量在每个年代均呈上升趋势,尤其在20世纪90年代,这种情况更为明显。③极端降水高风险区的年降水量呈下降趋势,前后存在6~8年和1~2年的振荡周期;年暴雨日数稳定在3~19 d且呈减少趋势,而年最大日降水量呈增加趋势;季节降水量较为稳定,春、夏、秋降水量均存在明显的振荡周期。研究结果可为深圳市进一步准确评估极端降水风险、合理制定洪涝预防措施以及更好地进行城市规划提供参考。At present,there are many researches on precipitation in Shenzhen,but relatively few researches on the characteristics of extreme precipitation.Based on the precipitation data in China Meteorological Forcing from 1979 to 2018,this paper analyzes the changing characteristics of the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme precipitation in Shenzhen in the past four decades in terms of precipitation amount and intensity by combining the extreme precipitation indicators with the Mann-Kendall trend analysis method,Sen′s slope method,and wavelet analysis method.The results are as follows.Firstly,the extreme precipitation in Shenzhen was greater in the south than in the north,and the upward trend in the west was higher than that in the east.The locations of high-risk areas of extreme precipitation tend to be concentrated with the urbanization process,and are the most stable in Futian and Luohu districts.Secondly,the monthly average number of storm days and monthly maximum daily precipitation in the extreme precipitation high-risk area showed an increasing trend in each decade,especially in the 1990s.Thirdly,the annual precipitation in areas at high risk of extreme precipitation shows a decreasing trend,with oscillating cycles of 6 to 8 years and 1 to 2 years before and after.The number of days of heavy rainfall per year is stable and decreasing between 3 and 19 days,while the annual maximum daily precipitation is increasing.Seasonal precipitation is relatively stable,with obvious oscillation cycles except for winter precipitation.The results of this paper can provide a reference for further accurate assessment of extreme precipitation risk,formulation of flood prevention policies and better urban planning in Shenzhen.

关 键 词：极端降水 时空演变 振荡周期 城市化 深圳市 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]