城镇化、住房需求与家庭杠杆率  

Urbanization,Housing Demand and Household Leverage

作　　者：张诚 翁希演 胡少东[1] ZHANG Cheng;WENG Xi-yan;HU Shao-dong

机构地区：[1]汕头大学商学院,汕头515063

出　　处：《金融论坛》2024年第1期70-80,共11页Finance Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“共同富裕背景下家庭负债行为及对经济不平等的影响研究”(72203136);广东高校创新团队项目“潮汕文化与区域经济发展研究”(2020WCXTD022);汕头大学科研启动经费项目“中国家庭负债行为研究”(STF21003)的资助。

摘　　要：本文从家庭微观层面,运用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,研究在城镇化进程中户籍身份转换对家庭杠杆率的影响。基准估计结果表明,户籍身份转换推高家庭杠杆率。机制分析发现,户籍身份转换引致家庭产生新的住房需求,促使其为平滑消费而负债购房,导致家庭杠杆率提高。进一步研究发现,户籍身份转换提高家庭的消费水平,且提高家庭过度负债的概率。异质性分析结果发现,对于受教育水平较低、中等收入家庭和养幼负担较重的家庭,户籍身份转换对家庭杠杆率的影响更显著。Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this paper studies the impact of the registered residence status conversion on household leverage in the process of urbanization from the family micro level.The benchmark estimation results show that the conversion of registered residence status pushes up household leverage.The mechanism analysis shows that the conversion of registered residence status leads to new housing demand of families,which prompted them to buy houses in debt to smooth consumption,leading to the increase of family leverage.Further research finds that registered residence status conversion improves the consumption level of families and increases the probability of excessive debt of families.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that for families with low education level,middle income families and families with heavy childcare burden,registered residence status conversion has a more significant impact on family leverage.

关 键 词：户籍身份转换 家庭杠杆率 住房需求 住房贷款 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济] F126