人口负增长的内涵演变、多维区分与经济影响路径  

Negative Population Growth: Conceptual Evolution,Multidimensional Classification, and Economic Impacts

作　　者：金光照 郭亚隆 陶涛[2] Jin Guangzhao;Guo along;Tao Tao

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学社会与人口学院 [2]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心

出　　处：《兰州学刊》2024年第2期64-76,共13页

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目成果(项目编号:22XNH152)。

摘　　要：人口负增长正在世界范围内蔓延,中国也已于2022年开始人口负增长,对人口负增长理论体系的构建显得尤为紧迫。回望历史,人们对人口负增长实现了从现象认识到规律预判的推进,并逐渐聚焦于由长期低生育率引发的内生性人口负增长。从理论机制来看,人口负增长伴随的人口规模缩减和年龄结构老化可能会对经济发展供给侧和需求侧各要素产生复杂影响,如劳动力减少、消费下降、储蓄下降、投资预期降低、社会创新活力下降、劳动参与率提高、消费结构升级、人力资本的倒逼性积累、资本深化等。人口负增长对经济各要素的影响方向和程度并不一致,最后呈现出来的是多种效应的合力,在不同国家、不同发展阶段存在着多种可能性。正是这种不确定性和可塑性提供了政策应对的机遇。Negative population growth is emerging around the world,and has happened in China in 2022,which makes the construction of a theoretical system of negative population growth particularly urgent.Looking back at the history,people have advanced from the recognition of the phenomenon to the prediction of the law of negative population growth,and gradually focused on the endogenous negative population growth triggered by long-term low fertility.An analysis of the theoretical mechanism indicates that negative population growth is accompanied by population decline and ageing,which may have complicated effects on both the supply-side and demand-side of economic development.These effects can be a reduction in labor force,consumption,savings,investment expectations,and social innovation vitality,and an increase in labor participation,an upgrade of the consumption structure,capital deepening,forcing the accumulation of human capital,and promoting the transformation of economic development patterns.Negative population growth has impacts on economic factors in different directions and degrees.And the final results derive from these effects combining with each other,with multiple possibilities in different countries and different stages of development.It is the uncertainty and flexibility that provide opportunities for policy responses.

关 键 词：人口负增长 内涵演变 多维区分 经济影响 

分 类 号：K26[历史地理—历史学]