重庆与全国蔬菜零售价格波动的比较分析  

Comparative Analysis on the Fluctuation of Vegetable Retail Prices Between Chongqing and China

作　　者：罗琴 LUO Qin(Chongqing Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Chongqing 401329)

机构地区：[1]重庆市农业科学院,重庆401329

出　　处：《北方园艺》2024年第2期139-146,共8页Northern Horticulture

摘　　要：采用季节调整法和滤波方法分解分析重庆市和全国蔬菜零售价格的季节性、不规则、长期趋势和周期循环四类因子的变动特征及其对整体价格波动的贡献率,以期发现价格波动的规律和差异。结果表明:重庆市蔬菜零售价格整体高于全国水平,长期上涨趋势较全国更明显,不规则因子波动更加剧烈;全国和重庆市蔬菜零售价格季节性分别表现出“V”型和不规则“W”型特征,近年来周期循环因子变动加剧;全国水平蔬菜零售价格波动主要在于季节性变动,重庆市主要在于不规则变动和季节性变动。建议从完善监测预警体系、强化全市“菜篮子”工作和增强蔬菜产业均供应、抗风险、降成本能力等方面稳定重庆市蔬菜零售价格。The seasonal adjustment method and filtering method were used to analyze the seasonal,irregular,long-term trend and cyclical factors of retail vegetable prices in Chongqing and the whole country and their contribution rates to the overall price fluctuation,in order to find the rule and difference of price fluctuation.The results showed that the retail price of vegetables in Chongqing was higher than the national level,the long-term rising trend was more obvious than the national level,and the fluctuation of irregular factors was more severe.The retail prices of vegetables in China and Chongqing showed the characteristics of‘V’and irregular‘W’,respectively.The fluctuation of vegetable retail price at the national level mainly lay in seasonal variation,while in Chongqing it mainly lay in irregular and seasonal variation.It was suggested to stabilize the retail price of vegetables in Chongqing from the aspects of improving the monitoring and early warning system,strengthening the work of'vegetable basket'in the city and strengthening the ability of vegetable industry to supply,resist risks and reduce costs.

关 键 词：蔬菜价格 波动分析 季节调整 Hodrick-Prescott滤波 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]