成都市2010―2021年校外青少年HIV/AIDS空间聚集性分析  

Spatial clustering of HIV/AIDS among out-of-school adolescents in Chengdu from 2010 to 2021

作　　者：施雅莹[1] 朱彦锋 罗琳 代珍[1] 刘芳[1] 何勤英[1] SHI Yaying;ZHU Yanfeng;LUO Lin;DAI Zhen;LIU Fang;HE Qinying(Department of STD/AIDS Control and Prevention,Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,China;School of Public Health,Chengdu Medical College,Chengdu 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]成都市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防制科,成都610041 [2]成都医学院公共卫生学院,成都610500

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2023年第12期1403-1407,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：四川省卫生健康委员会普及应用项目(19PJ026);成都医学院四川应用心理学研究中心(CSXL-202A22);四川性社会学与性教育研究中心课题(SXJYB2109)。

摘　　要：目的分析2010―2021年成都市校外青少年HIV/AIDS的空间聚集性特征和趋势,为今后校外青少年区域化防控及资源调整提供参考依据。方法从“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”筛选出2010―2021年成都市新报告的校外青少年HIV/AIDS病例进行描述性分析,运用ArcGIS 10.6软件开展时空自相关分析及空间聚集性分析。运用SaTScan软件进行时空扫描分析。结果成都市校外青少年HIV/AIDS疫情2010―2015年年均增长率为15.97%,2015―2021年年均增长率为-7.97%。2010―2021年校外青少年HIV/AIDS患者疫情涉及334个乡镇/街道,存在空间聚集性,集中在中心城区,随着时间的推移逐渐向周围扩散。异性传播和同性传播的热点分布区域有所不同。时空扫描分析显示,2012―2017年聚集区域主要为中心城区的37个乡镇/街道。结论2010―2021年成都市校外青少年HIV/AIDS病例数呈现先上升后下降的趋势,空间分布上呈不均衡性,疫情较严重的区域集中在成都市中心城区,应加强对异性传播和同性传播的热点分布区域的校外青少年宣传干预工作。Objective To analyze the characteristics and trends of spatial aggregation of HIV among out-of-school adolescents in Chengdu from 2010 to 2021,providing a reference basis for regionalized prevention and resource adjustment in the future.Methods Newly reported HIV/AIDS cases among out-of-school adolescents in Chengdu between 2010 and 2021 were screened from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System for descriptive analysis.Spatial autocorrelation and clustering were analyzed using ArcGIS 10.6 software.Spatiotemporal scanning was conducted using SaTScan.Results The average annual growth rate was 15.97%from 2010 to 2015,while the average annual reduction rate was-7.97%from 2015 to 2021.The epidemic of out-of-school adolescents affected 334 towns or streets from 2010 to 2021,exhibiting spatial aggregation that was concentrated in the central area of Chengdu,and gradually spreading to the surrounding area over time.The distribution of hotspots for heterosexual and homosexual transmission differed.Spatiotemporal scanning analysis revealed that the clustering areas were primainly located in 37 streets within the central area of Chengdu during the period of 2012-2017.Conclusions The number of HIV cases among out-of-school adolescents in Chengdu displays a trend of initial increase followed by a decrease from 2010-2021.The spatial distribution exhibits distinct unevenness,with more serious epidemics concentrated in the central area of Chengdu.Therefore,it is crucial to strengthen publicity and intervention efforts for out-of-school adolescents in the hot distribution areas of heterosexual and homosexual transmission.

关 键 词：HIV/AIDS 校外青少年 空间聚集 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]