江西部分社区居民衰老度变化及其拐点年龄探索研究  

An exploratory study on the change of aging degree and inflection point age of residents in some communities in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：杨善岚 涂嘉欣 张朗朗 吴磊[1] 黄河浪[1] YANG Shanlan;TU Jiaxin;ZHANG Langlang;WU Lei;HUANG Helang(Department of Epidemic and Health Statistics,School of Public Health of Nanchang University,Jiangxi Province Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine,Nanchang 330006,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,江西省预防医学重点实验室,南昌330006

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2023年第12期1435-1441,共7页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81960620,81360446,71663037)。

摘　　要：目的探索人群衰老变化特点,揭示全生命周期衰老拐点年龄,阐明衰老发展的非匀速过程,为人群主动健康提供针对性干预时段。方法采用多阶段分层整群抽样抽取有效研究对象5106名,采用生理-心理-社会三维人体衰老度量表(physiological-psychological-social three dimensional human aging scale,PPSHAS)进行衰老度测量,所得衰老度分值经局部加权回归(locally weighted regression,LOESS)平滑曲线拟合;通过受试者工作特征(receiver operator characteristic,ROC)曲线分析衰老拐点年龄,用logistic回归分析模型及其C指数验证其对衰老度的预测价值。结果不同年龄段居民衰老度分值差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05),随年龄波浪式升高。按WHO划分的青年人、中年人、年轻老人、老人的4类人群衰老拐点分析,提示26.0、38.0、47.0、57.1、61.6、68.5、76.9和83.8岁为衰老拐点(均P<0.05);混杂因素调整后,拐点年龄对预测衰老度变化仍有价值,模型一致性好(Hosmer-Lemeshow检验P>0.05)。结论机体衰老变化过程并非匀速,4类人群均会出现衰老拐点;本研究对深入认识衰老、把握衰老规律及针对性做好抗衰老工作有积极意义。Objective To explore the characteristics of aging changes in the population,reveal the inflection point age in the whole life cycle,clarify the nonlinear process of aging development,and provide targeted intervention periods for the active health of the population.Methods Using multistage stratified cluster sampling,5106 valid subjects were selected.The physiological-psychological-social three dimensional human aging scale(PPSHAS)scale was used to measure the degree of aging.Score of the aging degree was fitted by the LOESS smoothing curve;The age of aging inflection point was analyzed by ROC curve,and its predictive value on aging degree was verified by logistic regression model and the C index.Results Significant differences were found in the scores of aging degree among different age groups(all P<0.05),and it increased in a wave-like manner with age.According to the WHO′s analysis of aging inflection points for four groups(young,middle-aged,older,and elderly),the inflection point ages of aging were found to be 26.0,38.0,47.0,57.1,61.6,68.5,76.9,and 83.8 years,respectively(all P<0.05).After adjusting for confounding factors,the inflection point age remained a valuable predictor of changes in the aging degree,with good model consistency(Hosmer Lemeshow test P>0.05).Conclusions The aging process of the human body is uniform,and the four groups of people have aging inflection points.This study is of positive significance to deeply understand aging,grasp aging laws,and do a targeted anti-aging work.

关 键 词：衰老度 拐点年龄 受试者工作特征曲线 现场流行病学 老年人 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]