多元制衡:“印太”变局下澳大利亚的外交战略  

Pluralized Balancing:Australia’s Foreign Strategy in the Shifting Indo-Pacific Dynamics

作　　者：李彦良 LI Yanliang

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院,上海200233

出　　处：《国际展望》2024年第2期47-64,162,163,共20页Global Review

摘　　要：随着美国“印太战略”的推进,澳大利亚在国际政治中的角色日益受到学界的关注,中澳关系也自2016年以来经历了重大波折和结构调整。澳大利亚认为,中国的崛起和美国领导能力及意愿的下降,对澳大利亚所处的国际环境带来了结构性挑战。安全挑战的加剧、国际秩序的变化、经济依赖的失衡,均给澳大利亚的国家利益带来极大的不确定性。在此背景下,澳大利亚试图在调整其与中国和美国关系的同时,强化与其他域内国家的关系,通过多元制衡的方式应对风险挑战。在安全领域,澳寻求强化以美澳同盟为核心、以亚太盟友体系为支撑的多元威慑能力;在政治领域,澳试图以“志同道合”国家的小多边倡议为主要机制、以“基于规则的秩序”为核心发挥多元领导作用;在经济领域,澳在稳定中澳经贸关系的同时,追求以亚洲国家为主要经贸合作伙伴的多元融合目标。同时,澳外交战略仍存在一定局限性,一是对美依附惯性下战略独立性尚有不足;二是外交政策受制于国内政治斗争。对中国而言,需要在正视中澳分歧的基础上,探索双方利益的交汇点,同时也需将澳纳入国际政治经济新秩序的改革进程中,缓解澳方战略焦虑,促进中澳关系行稳致远。As the United States increasingly shifts its strategic resource to the Indo-Pacific,Australia has taken on a more prominent role in regional order and world affairs.The relationship between Australia and China has also experienced major setbacks and adjustments since 2016.Australia believes that China’s rise and the diminution of U.S.leadership pose structural challenges to the international system.Amid intensifying security challenges,evolving international order,and unbalanced economic interdependence,Australia’s national interests is facing great uncertainties.Therefore,Australia is advancing its cooperation with other regional actors,while adjusting its relations with United States and China,so as to balance the challenges in a pluralized way.On the security front,Australia builds on the U.S.-centered alliance system to strengthen its deterrence capacity.On the political front,Australia tries to advance its leadership for a“rules-based order”under minilateral mechanisms with like-mined partners.In economic terms,Australia attempts to sustain trade ties with China,while pursing economic integration with other Asian countries.The implementation of Australian foreign strategy still faces limitations,due to its policy dependency on United States and domestic political environment.China needs to address its differences as well as its common interests with Australia.It also needs to incorporate Australia into the process of reforming the international political and economic order,so as to relieve Australia’s strategic anxiety,and further advance the bilateral relations.

关 键 词：中澳关系 美澳同盟 澳大利亚外交 中等强国 亚太地区秩序 

分 类 号：D822.361.1[政治法律—政治学]