水网布局下黄河流域应对极端枯水的关键科学问题  

Key scientific issues of dealing with extreme dry events in the Yellow River basin under the layout of water network

作　　者：王煜[1] 彭少明 郑小康 尚文绣 WANG Yu;PENG Shaoming;ZHENG Xiaokang;SHANG Wenxiu(Yellow River Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Zhengzhou 450003,China;The General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100120,China;Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Key Laboratory of Water Management and Water Security for Yellow River Basin(under construction),Ministry of Water Resources,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部黄河水利委员会,河南郑州450003 [2]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100120 [3]黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南郑州450003 [4]水利部黄河流域水治理与水安全重点实验室(筹),河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水科学进展》2024年第1期11-23,共13页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFC3202300);国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2243233)。

摘　　要：变化环境下极端气象水文事件频发,长江、黄河面临同枯风险。在国家水网建设背景下,为提高长江、黄河同枯的极端不利情景下黄河流域水资源安全保障能力,本文分析了长江、黄河两大流域水资源安全面临的现实问题,识别了变化环境下大型流域枯水遭遇—水危机形成—跨流域调水潜力—多线路成网互济—极端枯水下水资源安全保障中亟需破解的关键科学问题,构建了水网布局下黄河流域应对极端枯水的总体研究框架,提出该领域重点研究方向包括:变化环境下长江、黄河极端枯水遭遇规律与空间变异机制,水危机风险多链路传导与复合影响定量评估,极端枯水下跨流域调水挖潜增供,长江和黄河跨流域联合调配与多线路互济精细化调控、极端枯水下流域水资源韧性提升优化调控等。Extreme meteorological and hydrological events frequently occur in the changing environment.The Yangtze River and Yellow River are facing the risk of simultaneous dry events.This paper analyzes the practical problems encountered in the Yangtze River basin and Yellow River basin following the construction of the national water network in order to ensure water resources security in the Yellow River basin when these two rivers experience simultaneous dry events.Urgent key scientific problems that need to be addressed include simultaneous dry events of large-scale basins in the changing environment,water crisis formation,interbasin water transfer potential,water network formation and the water transfer mechanism of multi-line projects,water resources security assurance during extreme dry events.An overall research framework for addressing extreme dry events in the Yellow River basin under the layout of the water network is proposed.Key research directions are analyzed from five aspects,namely,occurrence patterns and spatial variation mechanisms of simultaneous dry events in the Yangtze River and the Yellow River;quantitative assessment of multi-link transmission and compound impact of water crisis risk;interbasin water transfer potential in extreme dry events,interbasin water allocation and refined regulation of multi-line water transfer projects;and improvement of the resilience of thebasin water resource system during extreme dry events.

关 键 词：极端枯水 枯水遭遇 水危机 跨流域水资源调配 水资源系统韧性 南水北调 黄河 长江 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]