全球气象预报驱动流域水文预报研究进展与展望  

Research progresses and prospects of catchment hydrological forecasting driven by global climate forecasts

作　　者：赵铜铁钢 张弛[2] 田雨[3] 李昱[2] 陈泽鑫 陈晓宏[1] ZHAO Tongtiegang;ZHANG Chi;TIAN Yu;LI Yu;CHEN Zexin;CHEN Xiaohong(Center of Water Resources and Environment,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;College of Hydraulic Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275 [2]大连理工大学水利工程学院,辽宁大连116024 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《水科学进展》2024年第1期156-166,共11页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFF0804900);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52379033)。

摘　　要：全球气象模型及新兴人工智能模型为流域水文预报提供了日、次季节、季节等不同时间尺度的海量气象预报数据。与此同时,基于气象预报开展水文预报,涉及到数据获取、模型构建、评估检验等技术问题。本文以全球气象预报相关的研究计划为切入点,调研现有的1 d至2周小时尺度中短期天气预报、1~60 d次季节尺度气象预报、1~12个月季节尺度气象预报以及新兴的人工智能气象预报;梳理气象预报驱动下流域水文预报模型方法,阐述气象预报订正、水文模型设置和预报评估检验等技术环节。基于全球气象预报生成实时和回顾性流域水文预报,定量检验不同预见期下预报精度以评估相关模型方法的预报性能,为水利工程预报-调度实践应用打下坚实的基础。Global climate models and emerging artificial intelligence models generate big climate forecasts data for catchment hydrological forecasting at daily,sub-seasonal and seasonal timescales.The utilization of global climate forecasts to drive catchment hydrological models are confronted with the technical issues of climate forecast data retrieval,hydrological forecasting model set-up and verification of hydro-climatic forecasts.Starting with international collaborative research projects on global climate forecasting,this paper conducts a survey of short-term weather forecasts for the next 1 day to 2 weeks,sub-seasonal climate forecasts for the next 1 to 60 days,seasonal climate forecasts for the next 1 to 12 months and artificial intelligence-based climate forecasts.Furthermore,the processes of catchment hydrological forecasting driven by global climate forecasts are illustrated by detailing the technical aspects on the calibration of climate forecasts,the setting-up of hydrological models and the verification of predictive performance.By generating real-time and retrospective catchment hydrological forecasts from global climate forecasts,the efficacy of forecasting models can be quantitatively examined by verifying forecast skill at different lead times,laying a solid basis for practical forecasts-based operations of hydraulic infrastructure.

关 键 词：全球气象模型 气象预报 流域水文模型 水文预报 实时预报 回顾性预报 预报检验 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]