基于截尾分布的永久路面结构可靠度分析  

Reliability Analysis of Permanent Pavement Structure Based on Truncated Distribution

作　　者：王国清 张权 何兆益[3] 秦禄生 邱文利 WANG Guoqing;ZHANG Quan;HE Zhaoyi;QIN Lusheng;QIU Wenli(Hebei Transportation Investment Group Co.,Ltd.,Shijiazhuang 050091,Hebei,China;Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;College of Civil Engineering,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]河北交通投资集团有限公司,河北石家庄050091 [2]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [3]重庆交通大学土木工程学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期17-23,共7页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：科技部重点专项项目(SQ2020YFF0402188);河北省交通运输厅科技项目(JD-202003)。

摘　　要：为建立基于实测参数变异范围的永久路面结构可靠度分析方法,首先基于概率等效原则和逆变换法建立参数“有界”性的双侧截尾分布随机数抽样方法;然后选取现行沥青路面设计规范中面层、基层和路基结构的验算指标建立极限状态方程并开发多指标可靠度计算程序,将分析结果与理论分布随机变量可靠度程序对比;最后结合实测参数变异性水平,使用建立的可靠度分析方法评估京德高速永久路面结构的工后可靠度。结果表明:截尾分布更符合工程参数的真实分布,计算的可靠度更准确;中等交通荷载等级下,京德高速的路面结构可靠度为95.2%~98.7%;在累计当量轴次失效点后,永久路面结构面层、基层和路基的可靠度值均随轴次的增大而减小,且荷载越大,可靠度值下降速率越快,可靠度也越低。In order to establish a reliability analysis method for permanent pavement structures based on the variability range of the measured parameters,firstly,a double-sided truncated distribution random number sampling method with parameter boundedness was established,which was based on the principles of probability equivalence and inverse transformation method.Secondly,limit state equations were established and a multi-indicator reliability calculation program was developed by selecting the verification indicators of surface layer,base layer,and subgrade structure in the current asphalt pavement design specifications.The analysis results were compared with the reliability program of theoretical distribution random variables.Finally,combined with the measured parameter variability level,the established reliability analysis method was used to evaluate the post-construction reliability of the permanent pavement structure of the Jing-De Expressway.The results show that the truncated distribution better conforms to the actual distribution of engineering parameters,and the calculated reliability is more accurate.Under moderate traffic load levels,the reliability of the Jing-De Expressway pavement structure ranges from 95.2 to 98.7%.After accumulating equivalent axle load cycle failure points,the reliability values of the surface layer,base layer,and subgrade of the permanent pavement structure all decrease with the increase of axle load cycles,and the greater the load,the faster the rate of reliability value decrease,and the lower the reliability.

关 键 词：道路工程 沥青路面可靠度 半刚性基层 截断正态分布 Monte Carlo法 响应面法 

分 类 号：U416[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]