基于CAMM和CLDAS的黄淮海冬小麦成熟期连阴雨时空特征  

Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Continuous Rain During Winter Wheat Harvest Period in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region Based on CAMM and CLDAS Data

作　　者：邬定荣[1] 高静[2] 姬兴杰[3,4] 张溪荷 王培娟 杨建莹[1] 马玉平[1] 霍治国[1] Wu Dingrong;Gao Jing;Ji Xingjie;Zhang Xihe;Wang Peijuan;Yang Jianying;Ma Yuping;Huo Zhiguo(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;National Meteorological Information Centre,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,CMA,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]国家气象信息中心,北京100081 [3]中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [4]河南省气象科学研究所,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2024年第1期1-9,共9页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFD2300202);中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费(2023Z014)。

摘　　要：利用黄淮海地区2008—2023年的CLDAS数据和同期65个农业气象观测站的冬小麦花期、成熟期观测数据,订正机理性中国农业气象模式(CAMM)中发育模块(RAM)的参数,评估模式对冬小麦成熟期的模拟精度,而后重构格点化的历年成熟期日期,统计成熟期前6天后9天共16天的降水量和雨日数,随后基于连阴雨指标,研究连阴雨的时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)RAM模式对冬小麦成熟期具有较好的模拟能力,各站RMSE平均值为2.28±0.46 d,模拟值与实测值的R2为0.915。(2)黄淮海地区冬小麦成熟期降水量和雨日数均呈南北两端高中间低的空间分布格局,区域平均降水量为8.8~84.6 mm,平均值为31.9 mm,雨日数为1.0~9.1天,平均值为5.4天。(3)2008—2023年连阴雨灾害波动较大,其中2009、2013、2018和2023年较为严重,大致呈4~5年发生一次的周期性规律,且灾情呈加重的趋势。(4)连阴雨灾害在黄淮海地区北部很少发生,河北和山东交界处偶发,灾害高发重发区主要集中在河南省,尤其是郑州以南的驻马店和信阳一带最为严重,发生频率约为5年一遇,持续天数多在9天以上。The phenology module(RAM)of the mechanistic Chinese Agrometeorological Model(CAMM)is parameterized by the CLDAS data from 2008 to 2023 in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the winter wheat flowering and ripening dates data from 65 agrometeorological observation stations,and the model simulation accuracy for the winter wheat maturation is evaluated by root mean square error(RMSE)and determination coefficient(R 2).Then,the historical gridded maturity dates of winter wheat are reconstructed.On this basis,the rainfall amount and days of continuous rain in the Huang-Huai-Hai region during the 6 days before and 9 days after the simulated maturity date(16 days in total)are counted.Finally,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of continuous rain are investigated based on continuous rain indicators.The results show that:(1)The RAM model performs well in simulating winter wheat maturity date,with the average RMSE at each station being 2.28±0.46 d and the determination coefficient R 2 between the observed and simulated dates being 0.915.(2)The spatial distributions of both the precipitation and rain days in the winter wheat ripening period in the Huang-Huai-hai region are characterized by higher in the north and south and lower in the middle.The regional average precipitation varies in the range of 8.8—84.6 mm with 31.9 mm as the average value,and the number of rain days changes from 1.0 to 9.1 d with an average of 5.4 d.(3)During 2008—2023,continuous rain disasters fluctuate considerably,of which the disasters in 2009,2013,2018,and 2023 are more serious,thus roughly showing a pattern of occurring once in 4—5 years,and the disaster tends to become more and more serious.(4)Continuous rain disasters seldom happen in the northern part of the Huang-Huai-Hai region,but occasionally occur at the junction of Hebei and Shandong provinces.The disaster-prone areas are mainly concentrated in Henan province.Especially,the continuous rain disaster is the most serious in Zhumadian and Xinyang to the south of Zhengzhou,

关 键 词：连阴雨 黄淮海地区 冬小麦 发育模式 格点资料 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]