冬小麦农业气象灾害风险预警的业务实践与思考  

Operational Practice and Thinking on Early Warning of Agrometeorological Disaster Risk of Winter Wheat

作　　者：郭安红[1] 何亮 姬兴杰[2,3] 侯英雨 李森[1] 张弘[2,3] Guo Anhong;He Liang;Ji Xingjie;Hou Yingyu;Li Sen;Zhanghong(National Meteorological Centre,CMA,Beijing 100081,China;Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,CMA,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [3]河南省气象科学研究所,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2024年第1期20-27,共8页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J056)。

摘　　要：开展冬小麦农业气象灾害风险预警工作是当前保障小麦生产安全和防灾减损的重要工作之一。2022年开始气象部门和农业部门联合开展了冬小麦农业气象灾害风险预警的业务服务工作,取得了一些技术成果和成功案例,但也存在一些问题和不足。本文简述了农业气象灾害风险预警业务的内涵,提出了综合农业气象灾害可能性预报、危险性和脆弱性预估,构建基于风险矩阵的冬小麦农业气象灾害风险预警业务的技术框架,并以2022年小麦干热风风险预警工作为例,展示了冬小麦农业气象灾害风险预警工作的技术流程。冬小麦农业气象灾害风险预警工作刚刚起步,尚有很多工作不完善,包括如何与已有的灾害风险评估成果进行深入融合,开展定量化的灾害影响预报和预警指标率定等。此外,在提升冬小麦农业气象灾害风险预警的准确率和开展服务效益评估等方面,未来还需要做大量的研发工作。Risk early warning of agrometeorological disaster of winter wheat is one of the most important tasks to ensure wheat production safety and reduce disaster losses.Since 2022,operational service work of agrometeorological disaster risk early warning has been carried out jointly by the meteorological department and the agriculture department,and some technical achievements and successful cases have been achieved,but there are also some problems and deficiencies.In this paper,we briefly described the operational service connotation of agrometeorological disaster risk early warning,proposed the disaster possibility prediction,hazard and vulnerability estimate,and built the technical framework of agrometeorological disaster risk warning operational service of winter wheat based on the risk matrix.Moreover,taking the early warning of wheat dry-hot wind risk in 2022 as an example,we displayed the technical process of agrometeorological disaster risk early warning of winter wheat.The operational service work of agrometeorological disaster risk early warning of winter wheat has just started,a lot of work still needs to be done,including how to deeply integrate with the existing disaster risk assessment results,carry out quantitative disaster impact forecast and make quantitative early warning index calibration.In addition,a lot of research and development work is needed in improving the accuracy of early warning of agrometeorological disaster risk of winter wheat and evaluating the service benefits.

关 键 词：冬小麦 农业气象灾害 风险预警 业务实践 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P426.62