河南2023年麦收期连阴雨极端特征及预报偏差分析  

Analysis on the Extremity Feature and Forecast Error of Persistent Rainfall During the 2023 Wheat Harvest Period in Henan Province

作　　者：刘超[1,2] 董俊玲 Liu Chao;Dong Junling(Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,CMA,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Meteorological Observatory,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象台,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2024年第1期57-65,共9页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：河南省科技研发计划联合基金项目(232103810097);中国气象局预报复盘总结专项(FPZJ2024-078);国家超算郑州中心创新生态系统建设科技专项(201400210800);安阳市重大科技专项(2022A02SF005)。

摘　　要：基于多尺度观测资料、多种数值模式和主观预报产品,分析了2023年河南麦收关键期出现的连续降水天气过程的极端性特征,并对主客观预报进行检验评估。结果表明:5月20日至6月4日累计降水量距平百分率全省平均为170.3%,累计雨量有17个站达到历史同期排名第一;5月25日至6月4日出现长达11天的全省范围的连阴雨过程,历史排名第二。2023年5月2530日500 hPa平均场副高西伸脊点较气候态偏西33个经度以上,河南上空高度场较气候态高出160~200 gpm。中层气流变化导致降水系统移动方向发生变化,是豫西强降水漏报的主要原因;模式对台风和副高位置预报的偏差,是导致雨带向南偏差的直接原因,进而导致各数值模式暴雨以上量级降水评分偏低。豫西地形对风场影响的机理较为复杂,需对更多个例诊断分析,得到客观结论。Based on multi-source observations,multi numerical model products as well as subjective and objective forecasts,this paper analyzes the extremity feature of the persistent rainfall from May 20 to June 4,2023,and evaluates the subjective and objective forecasts.The results show that the accumulated precipitation anomaly percentage in Henan Province from May 20 to June 4 was averaged to be 170.3%.The accumulated rainfall of 17 stations ranked the first in the same period of history.The persistent rainfall process lasted for 11 days in Henan Province from May 25 to June 4,ranking the second in history.The west ridge point of the subtropical high at the 500 hPa mean field in May 2530,2023,was 33 longitudes further westward than the climatological state,while the geopotential height over Henan was 160200 gpm higher than the climatological state.Change in the moving direction of the precipitation system caused by the variation of the mid-level airflow was the main reason for the missing forecast of the extremely severe precipitation in western Henan.The forecast errors of models for the Super Typhoon Mawar and subtropical high directly caused the rain band to deviate to the south,which further led to the low scores of the rainfall forecasts above the rainstorm level in each numerical model.Regarding the impact mechanism of terrain in western Henan on wind field,it is more complex,needing in-depth diagnosis and analysis to obtain objective conclusions.

关 键 词：连阴雨 极端性 偏差分析 数值模式 强台风“玛娃” 

分 类 号：P468.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P468.7