碳中和目标下我国煤炭主产省区的减排贡献及经济代价  

Emission reduction and economic cost of carbon neutrality policy in major coal-producing provinces in China

作　　者：张思露 郭超艺 周子乔 潘羽杰 马啸天 戴瀚程 Zhang Silu;Guo Chaoyi;Zhou Ziqiao;Pan Yujie;Ma Xiaotian;Dai Hancheng(College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2024年第1期6-13,共8页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：科技部国家重点研发计划政府间国际科技创新合作重点专项(2022YFE0138300);科技部国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3702900);国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金资助项目(72222001);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(72234002)。

摘　　要：选择山西、内蒙古、陕西、新疆和贵州5个煤炭主产省作为主要研究对象,基于省级动态可计算一般均衡模型,从生产者责任和消费者责任视角,分析不同碳配额方案下的煤炭脱钩、贸易隐含碳及经济损失,旨在为煤炭主产省的低碳转型路径优化提供参考依据。结果表明:碳中和政策显著推动各省份煤炭消费与经济发展的脱钩。从生产者责任视角分配碳配额时,煤炭主产省将会遭受严重的负面经济冲击,尤其是山西(58.3%)和内蒙古(65.3%);东南部发达省份则会从中西部省份进口高碳密集型的商品来实现碳减排。当从消费者责任视角分配碳配额时,我国整体GDP损失将降低,煤炭主产省将会有更长的转型发展时间,但仍然需要尽快转型,以免被困于高碳和能源密集型的重工业中。This study selected five major coal-producing provinces,namely Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Xinjiang,and Guizhou,as the major research targets.With a provincial computable general equilibrium model,we investigated coal decoupling,embodied carbon emission and economic losses under the carbon quota scheme from producer and consumer responsibility perspectives,providing a reference for the low-carbon development pathway.The results show that carbon neutrality policy significantly promotes the decoupling of coal consumption and economic development in various provinces.However,producer responsibility-oriented policy may cause significant economic losses in major coal-producing provinces,especially in Shanxi(58.3%)and Inner Mongolia(65.3%),whereas developed provinces in Southeastern China can achieve the carbon emission reduction goal through provincial trade.In the consumer responsibility-oriented policy scenario,the overall GDP losses are mitigated,and major coal-producing provinces can gradually transit to a low-carbon industrial structure.The results suggested that major coal-producing provinces should promote such transition promptly to avoid being trapped in carbon-and energy-intensive industrial structures.

关 键 词：煤炭主产区 消费者责任 隐含碳排放转移 可计算一般均衡分析 

分 类 号：F416.21[经济管理—产业经济]