中国金融保险业的产业关联和诱发效应研究--来自竞争型投入产出表的证据  

The Industrial Correlation and Induced Effects of China's Financial and Insurance Industry

作　　者：韩永辉 麦靖华 罗瑞霖 YONGHUI HAN;JINGHUA MAI;RUILIN LUO(Guangdong Institute for International Strategies,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies;Institute of World Economics and Politics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;School of Economics and Trade,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 [2]广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院 [3]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院

出　　处：《产业经济评论》2024年第1期102-119,共18页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球产业链重构对全球经济治理体系的影响及中国应对研究”(21&ZD074);国家自然科学基金项目“产业政策对参与全球价值链的影响研究:理论机制、实证识别与中国方案”(72073037);国家自然科学基金项目“产业政策对全要素生产率的影响研究:理论机制、实证识别与中国经验”(71873041);广东省自然科学基金杰出青年项目“面向全球价值链的产业政策治理研究”(2022B1515020008);深圳市建设中国特色社会主义先行示范区研究中心委托课题“深圳综合授权改革的‘时度效’研究”(SFQZX2104)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：金融保险业是连接国民经济各产业部门生产经营活动的重要纽带。本文以2018年和2020年竞争型投入产出表为依据,利用投入产出模型辨析中国产业类型、测度角色地位和分析产业价值,着重研究中国金融保险业的产业关联和诱发效应。研究发现:(1)中国金融保险业是中间产品型基础产业,具备需求拉动力小、供给推动力大,即弱辐射性、强制约性的特征;(2)中国金融保险业与房地产、商务服务和交通运输服务等第三产业的产业关联效应较为明显,对金融保险业自身、商务服务和房地产影响力度较强,同时容易受到交通运输服务、房地产和商业服务影响;(3)消费、投资、出口最终需求对金融保险业的生产诱发效应依次减弱,消费对其生产诱发依存度逐年上升,投资则逐年下降;(4)在构建国内经济循环体系过程中,金融保险业暂未发挥核心支柱作用。本文提出为加快建设全国统一大市场、推动中国式现代化进程,中国亟需完善现代化金融体系,发挥其经济“减震器”以及社会“稳定器”功能。The financial and insurance industry is an important link connecting the production and operation activities of various industrial sectors of the national economy.This paper is based on the competitive input-output tables of 2018 and 2020,and uses input-output models to distinguish the types of industries in China,measure the role status,and analyze industry value.It focuses on studying the industrial correlation and induced effects of China's financial and insurance industry.We find that:(1)China's financial and insurance industry is an intermediate product-based industry,belonging to a production service industry with low demand pulling force and high supply driving force,namely weak radiation and mandatory contracting;(2)China's financial and insurance industry has obvious industrial linkages and spillover effects with the tertiary industries such as real estate,business services and transportation services.It has a strong impact on the financial and insurance industry itself,business services and real estate,and is vulnerable to the impact of transportation services,real estate and commercial services;(3)The production induced effects of consumption,investment,and export final demand on the financial and insurance industry have gradually weakened,and the dependence of consumption on its production induced dependence has increased year by year,while investment has decreased year by year;(4)In the process of building a domestic economic circulation system,the financial and insurance industry has not yet played a core pillar role.This article proposes that in order to accelerate the construction of a unified national market,China urgently needs to improve its modern financial system and leverage its economic‘shock absorber’and social‘stabilizer’functions.

关 键 词：金融保险业 产业关联效应 投入产出模型 中国式现代化 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险] F832