制度性吸纳与军人政权韧性:以缅甸和泰国为例  

Institutional Absorption and Endurance of Military Regime:Taking Myanmar and Thailand as Examples

作　　者：王正绪 卢嘉珺 WANG Zheng-xu;LU Jia-jun(School of Public Administration,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang310058;Organization Department of Shanghai Qingpu District Committee of the Communist Party of China,Qingpu,Shanghai201799)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]中共上海市青浦区委组织部,上海201799

出　　处：《公共治理研究》2024年第1期5-20,共16页PUBLIC GOVERNANCE RESEARCH

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划课题“民本贤能主义的当代世界意义研究及对中华文明发展的影响”(编号:2022BZZ001)。

摘　　要：军人政治是发展中国家常见的政治现象。在解释东南亚军人政权韧性的框架下考察制度性吸纳和治理绩效表现对军人政权韧性的影响发现,在其他条件不变的情况下,有效地实现了制度性吸纳并取得一定的治理绩效的军人政权具备较强的韧性,能够持续较长的时间。分别对缅甸(奈温和苏貌政权)和泰国(沙立—他侬和沙鄂—江萨政权)的两对军人政权进行最大相似性比较后发现,制度性吸纳有利于军人政权获得高韧性;而制度性吸纳与良好的绩效表现均是影响政权韧性的充分不必要条件中的必要不充分部分(INUS)。在此基础上进一步对缅甸和泰国中均获得高度韧性的军人政权进行最大差异性比较可证明,制度性吸纳是这些政权获得高度韧性的共同因素。Military politics is a common political phenomenon in developing countries.Under the framework of explaining the endurance of military regimes in Southeast Asia,examining the impact of institutional absorption and governance performance on military regime endurance,it was found that,with everything being equal,military regimes that effectively achieved institutional absorption and achieved certain governance performance have strong endurance and can last for a longer period of time.With the most similar comparison between the two military regimes in Myanmar(Ne Win and Su Maung regime)and Thailand(Sari-Thanon and Sah-Jangsa regime),it was found that institutional absorption and good performance are both necessary and insufficient parts of the sufficient and unnecessary conditions(INUS)that affect political endurance.On this basis,the most different comparison between military regimes in Myanmar and Thailand that have achieved high endurance can prove that institutional absorption is a common factor for these regimes to achieve high endurance.

关 键 词：军人政权 缅甸 泰国 制度性吸纳 制度韧性 

分 类 号：D6[政治法律—政治学]