黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全协调发展研究  

Research on the coordinated development of new urbanization and ecological security in the Yellow River Basin urban agglomeration

作　　者：孙斌[1] 杜松朴 薛建春[1] 童鑫 Sun Bin;Du Songpu;Xue Jianchun;Tong Xin(School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学经济与管理学院,内蒙古包头014010

出　　处：《河南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期16-26,共11页Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42061051);内蒙古自然科学基金(2021LHMS07002,2022LHMS070004)。

摘　　要：为推进中国式现代化建设,统筹黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展,提升城市群新型城镇化与生态安全协调发展水平,以黄河流域内的7个城市群为研究对象,构建新型城镇化与生态安全评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型和相对发展模型,并结合时空演化过程分析了黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度发展格局,最后通过系统动力学模型模拟未来5年耦合协调发展趋势.结果表明,研究期内,黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度总体呈上升趋势,部分城市群出现轻度波动,耦合协调特征由失调、濒临协调转化为勉强协调、初级协调;最后通过预测未来5年黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度发展过程,推断城市群均处于显著提升状态,且逐步达到初级协调阶段.针对目前黄河流域城市群新型城镇化与生态安全协调发展存在的不足,提出了相应的对策建议.This research is aimed to promote China's modernization,coordinate the Yellow River Basin's high-quality development and ecological security protection,and enhance the level of coordinated development between new urbanization and ecological security in urban agglomerations.Taking seven city clusters within the area as the research objects,the article constructs a new urbanization and ecological security evaluation index system.By applying a coupled coordination model and a relative development model,the development pattern of the coupling coordination of new urbanization and ecological security in the Yellow River Basin city clusters through the spatiotemporal evolution process is analyzed.Finally,the development trends for the next five years through constructing a system dynamics model are simulated.The results indicate an upward trend of the holistic integration between new urbanization and ecological security,encompassing their coordinated synergy and interaction,with some urban agglomerations experiencing slight fluctuations.The coupling coordination characteristics transform from imbalance and near coordination to reluctant coordination and primary coordination.It is found in the simulation that all urban agglomerations are in a significantly improved state and gradually reach the primary coordination stage.In response to the current shortcomings,corresponding strategic recommendations have been proposed.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 生态安全 系统动力学模型 耦合协调 黄河流域城市群 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济] X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]