2010—2021年山东省乙型肝炎发病率趋势分析及预测  

Trend analysis and prediction of the incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021

作　　者：杨艳荣 YANG Yanrong(Sub-center of Jinan New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion Starting District,Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 251400,Shandong Province,China.)

机构地区：[1]济南市疾病预防控制中心济南新旧动能转换起步区分中心,济南251400

出　　处：《职业卫生与病伤》2024年第1期12-15,共4页Occupational Health and Damage

摘　　要：目的 分析2010—2021年山东省乙型肝炎发病率趋势,预测2022—2026年山东省乙型肝炎发病率。方法 从《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》(2011/2012/2013/2014/2015/2016/2017/2018/2019/2020/2021/2022年版)提取2010—2021年山东省乙型肝炎发病率数据,使用Excel 2013对原始数据进行整理和灰色预测模型GM(1,1)模型的构建和预测,使用SPSS 22.0进行统计分析,使用GraphPad 9.0软件进行图片的可视化展示。以P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。结果山东省乙型肝炎发病率从2010年的29.86/10万上升到2021年的75.27/10万,年度变化百分比为9.20%,呈上升趋势差异有统计学意义(t=11.725,P<0.001)。GM(1,1)模型预测发现,2022—2026年山东省乙型肝炎发病率分别为88.44/10万、95.45/10万、103.02/10万、111.19/10万和120.00/10万。结论 2010—2021年山东省乙型肝炎发病率呈上升趋势,防控形式严峻,建议开展乙肝危险因素研究,扩大乙肝免疫规划的范围,加强健康教育和宣传,开展重点人群研究等综合措施来降低山东省乙肝发病率。Objective To analyze the incidence trend of hepatitis B in Shandong Province from 2010to 2021,and to predict the incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2026.Methods The data of incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021 were extracted from the China Health Statistical Yearbook(2011/2012/2013/2014/2015/2016/2017/2018/2019/2020/2021/2022 version). The original data were collated by Excel 2013, and GM(1,1) model was constructed and used for prediction. SPSS 22.0 was used for statistical analysis,and graphpad9.0 was used for the display of visual pictures. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant Results The incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province increased from 29.86/105in 2010 to 75.27/105in2021,with an annual change percentage of 9.20%,and the upward trend was statistically significant(t=11.725,P<0.001). GM(1,1) model predicted that the incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2026 would be 88.44/105, 95.45/105, 103.02/105, 111.19/105and 120.00/105,respectively. Conclusions The incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2021, and the prevention and control forms were severe. It is suggested to carry out research on hepatitis B risk factors, expand the scope of hepatitis B immunization program, strengthen health education and publicity, carry out research among key populations and other comprehensive measures to reduce the incidence rate of hepatitis B in Shandong Province.

关 键 词：乙型肝炎 趋势分析 预测 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]