全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率与中国经济波动——基于非对称视角的理论与实证分析  

Global economic policy uncertainty,RMB exchange rate and China’s economic fluctuations——Theoretical and empirical analysis based on asymmetric perspective

作　　者：姜伟[1] 刘欣仪 李丹娜 高春兴 JIANG Wei;LIU Xinyi;LI Danna;GAO Chunxing(School of Economics,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266000,China;School of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University,Changsha 410000,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266000 [2]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410000

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2024年第2期53-73,共21页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“促进实体经济高质量发展的金融结构优化与制度创新研究”(22&ZD117);国家社会科学基金项目“货币政策通过影响信心实现稳增长的机理与对策研究”(20BJL020)。

摘　　要：随着全球经济一体化的加深,全球经济政策不确定性和人民币汇率对中国经济波动产生越来越大的影响。基于非对称影响的视角,构建一个融入全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率和经济波动的Mundell-Fleming模型,从理论上分析各要素的非对称影响机制。实证结果表明:短期内人民币升值对物价水平的抑制效应大于贬值对物价水平的促进效应,长期内人民币升值对经济增长的抑制效应大于贬值对经济增长的促进效应;此外,无论在短期还是长期,全球经济政策不确定性降低对物价水平和经济增长的促进作用都大于经济政策不确定性上升的抑制效应。以上结果均通过稳健性检验。因此,央行需要加强对汇率与全球经济政策不确定性对物价水平和经济增长的非对称效应的关注,以实现中国经济的平稳运行。With the deepening of global economic integration,the uncertainty of global economic policies and the fluctuations of the renminbi exchange rate have increasingly significant impacts on the Chinese economy.From the perspective of asymmetric effects,this paper constructs a Mundell-Fleming model that incorporates global economic policy uncertainty,renminbi exchange rate,and economic volatility,and theoretically analyzes the mechanisms of their asymmetric effects.Empirical results show that in the short term,the suppressive effect of renminbi appreciation on the price level is greater than the promotional effect of depreciation,and in the long term,the suppressive effect of renminbi appreciation on economic growth is greater than the promotional effect of depreciation.In addition,regardless of the short term or long term,the reduction of global economic policy uncertainty has a greater promotional effect on the price level and economic growth than its upward suppressive effect.These results are robust to sensitivity analysis.Therefore,the central bank needs to strengthen its attention to the asymmetric effects of exchange rates and global economic policy uncertainty on the price level and economic growth in order to achieve stable operation of the Chinese economy.

关 键 词：全球经济政策不确定性 人民币汇率 经济波动 人民币名义有效汇率 NARDL模型 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学] F831.7