考虑抵达时间成本的道路交通事故风险评估方法  

A road traffic accident risk assessment method considering the arrival time cost

作　　者：孙克染 王颖志[2] 张丰[1,3] 刘仁义[1,3] SUN Keran;WANG Yingzhi;ZHANG Feng;LIU Renyi(School of Earth Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Department of Traffic Management Engineering,Zhejiang Police College,Hangzhou 310053,China;Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学地球科学学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江警察学院交通管理工程系,浙江杭州310053 [3]浙江大学浙江省资源与环境信息系统重点实验室,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（理学版）》2024年第2期143-152,共10页Journal of Zhejiang University（Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42271466)。

摘　　要：道路交通事故频发,给生命财产造成重大损失,给社会生活带来重大影响。现有针对道路交通事故风险的研究未建立有效的道路网络模型,难以准确描述交通事故风险在道路上的传播特点,评估准确度不高。基于此,提出了一种基于抵达时间成本的网络地理加权回归方法,并利用某县级市2018—2020年的道路、交通违法、交通事故、城市POI等数据开展实验,结果表明,基于抵达时间成本的网络地理加权回归方法融合了交通事故风险在道路上的传播性质,显著降低了评估误差,能够有效评估道路交通事故风险及其影响因素;市中心区域道路交通事故高风险区域主要集中在车流量较大的道路交会处与部分交通设施尚不完备的道路;各类交通违法数量、城市POI对道路交通事故风险的影响程度不同,且具有很强的空间异质性。Road traffic accidents occur frequently and have significant impacts on life,property,and society.However,existing researches on road traffic accident risk pay little attention on establishing an effective road network model that accurately describes the transmission characteristics of traffic accident risk.As a result,the accuracy of risk evaluation is limited.To address this issue,we propose a network geographically weighted regression method based on arrival time cost.We conduct experiments using data from roads,traffic violations,traffic accidents,and urban points of interest(POIs)in a city from 2018 to 2020.The experimental results demonstrate that the network geographically weighted regression method,based on arrival time cost,incorporates the propagation nature of traffic accident risk on the road.It significantly reduces evaluation errors and effectively evaluates road traffic accident risk and its influencing factors.The downtown area of the city exhibits high accident risk,primarily concentrated at intersections with heavy traffic flow and certain road points with inadequate transportation facilities.The impact of different types of road traffic violations and urban POIs on the risk of road traffic accidents varies significantly and exhibits strong spatial heterogeneity.

关 键 词：道路交通事故 成本网络地理加权回归 抵达时间成本 空间分析 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]