基于改进Theil指数和Shift-Share模型的2012—2021年中国产业偏离分析  

CHINA S 2012 TO 2021 INDUSTRIAL DEVIATION BASED ON IMPROVED THEIL INDEX AND SHIFT-SHARE MODEL

作　　者：高孝伟 张颖昆[2] 李华 王苏梦 GAO Xiaowei;ZHANG Yingkun;LI Hua;WANG Sumeng(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;Department of Economics and Management,Beijing City University,Beijing 101300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]北京城市学院经济管理学部,北京101300

出　　处：《资源与产业》2024年第1期15-24,共10页Resources & Industries

摘　　要：文章首先通过对现有文献的梳理和分析,发现针对产业偏离的测算,传统的产业偏离度E系数、Theil指数及Shift-Share模型均存在一定的缺陷,E系数和Theil指数的缺陷主要体现在计算原理方面,而Shift-Share模型的缺陷主要表现在参照系选择的合理性和数据采集的可行性方面。然后,基于现有模型的基本原理,提出了更为合理和更具可操作性的产业偏离测算方法,再采用实证研究的方法,根据2012—2021年的数据,对中国的产业偏离情况进行具体分析,得出尽管中国存在产业偏离,但产业偏离度在逐渐减小。最后,基于修正模型的计算结果,并结合当前的国际国内环境,提出如下政策建议:1)第一产业要依靠创新和科技引领,促进农村劳动力在城乡间有序转移,实现农业生产的规模化和现代化;2)第二产业要加快产业的升级换代,建立和保持独立、自主、完整的工业体系,加大在基础研究方面的投入,尽早突破美西方的技术封锁;3)第三产业的发展重点应该在金融和科教两个方面,要进一步提升香港地区、上海和北京等城市的世界金融中心地位,依靠金融创新来规避现行国际金融体系的不利约束和影响,同时要将科教兴国战略落到实处,努力探索适合中国国情的从小学到大学各阶段的教育模式。Overviews over references reveal that defects are existing in traditional industrial deviation E coefficient,Theil Index and Shift-Share model.Defects in E coefficient and Theil Index are in calculating principles,and those in Shift-Share model are in rationality of selecting reference system and feasibility of data collection.This paper presents an improved model that is used to study China s 2012 to 2021 industrial deviation via cases.It concludes that China s industrial deviation is diminishing.According to the corrected model and combined with the current global environment,this paper suggests that the first industry rely on scientific innovation to promote rural labors orderly migration between urban and rural areas and to materialize agricultural scale and modernization,that the second industry needs to be upgraded to reach and maintain an independent and complete industrial system,to inputs more in basic research to outbreak western technical blockage,that the third industry be focusing on financing and scientific education,increasing Hongkong Region,Shanghai and Beijing s positions in world financing center,using financial innovation to avoid unfavorable constraints and impacts from global financing system,practicing the strategy for invigorating the country through science and education and exploring educational modes appropriate China s situation from primary school to university stages.

关 键 词：三次产业 偏离度 THEIL系数 Shift-Share模型 产业结构优化 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F062.9